There is one biggest scam about the A-shares: a 10-year cycle of bull markets. Wake up, this claim is fundamentally flawed.

Just look at the A-share ledger, and it becomes clear. The Shanghai Stock Exchange opened in 1990, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose from 96 points to 1,558 points—this was purely due to new market dividends. From 1996 to 2001, it climbed from 512 points to 2,245 points, during which state-owned enterprise reforms were hot, macroeconomics peaked, and policy benefits were frequent. The real super bull market occurred from 2005 to 2007, with the Shanghai Composite Index pushing from 998 points to a historic high of 6,124 points—shareholding reform broke the ice, RMB appreciation attracted foreign investment, and economic growth surged, all three factors hitting simultaneously. Then there was the 2014 to 2015 wave, with loose policies and leveraged funds flooding in, causing the index to soar from 2,000 points to 5,178 points, only to abruptly stop due to a leverage blow-up.

Looking at these four rounds of market movements, the intervals vary—long and short—what pattern could there be?

Rather than obsessing over cycles, it’s better to focus on the four factors that truly drive the A-shares.

**First is macroeconomics.** Solid economic growth boosts corporate profits, giving the stock market a solid foundation to rise; if the economy is weak, even the most favorable policies can’t turn things around.

**Second is policy orientation.** The A-shares market has always been a policy-driven market. RRR cuts and interest rate reductions can directly release liquidity, and industry support policies can instantly boost related sectors. Following policy rhythms is a hundred times better than blindly guessing.

**Third is the genuine profitability of listed companies.** In essence, buying stocks is buying the company's future cash flow. When profits are continuously growing, stock price increases are reliable; if the company itself is losing money, any rise is just an illusion.

**Fourth is market sentiment.** Optimistic sentiment reinforces itself—everyone rushes in, and the market becomes more and more vigorous; once pessimism spreads, selling pressure can destroy everything.

Rather than waiting foolishly for 10 years, learn to recognize these four signals. When economic growth stabilizes and rebounds, monetary policy begins to loosen, leading companies report better-than-expected earnings, northbound funds continue to flow in net, and trading volume in both markets significantly increases, that’s when you should get ready. The most overlooked logic in the market is often the simplest.