The game between non-farm payrolls and the Federal Reserve in 2026: what is the market really paying attention to?

Entering 2026, the core significance of non-farm employment data has shifted from “whether it is overheating” to “whether policy adjustments are permitted.” The Federal Reserve’s current focus is no longer on whether employment is strong, but on how employment impacts the inflation trajectory.

If non-farm data performs steadily and wage growth continues to slow, this is seen as an ideal combination—no recession in the economy, and inflation under control. The market often pre-trades “dovish expectations,” and risk assets may actually strengthen. This is also why, in 2026, it is not uncommon to see “weakening dollar, stable gold, and rising risk assets” after non-farm data releases.

Conversely, if employment growth slows but wages remain high, market interpretation becomes more cautious. This suggests that inflationary pressures may still be sticky, the Fed’s policy space is constrained, and asset volatility may increase.

Therefore, non-farm data in 2026 is more like a psychological game with the Fed’s expectations. The data itself is just a material; the real pricing logic depends on whether it changes the probability distribution of “the next few meetings.”

For traders, understanding this is far more important than rushing to be the first to catch the initial candlestick. #非农就业数据