Goldman Sachs sets the tone for non-farm payrolls: only "dramatic" surprises can shake up the market. What does this mean for crypto stability?

The upcoming US December Non-Farm Payrolls report, to be released on January 10th (January 9th US time), is highly anticipated. Goldman Sachs’s latest research indicates that this data is unlikely to trigger significant market volatility unless there is a major surprise. What implications does this judgment have for the crypto market? Let’s take a look at the logic behind Goldman Sachs’s report.

Why Goldman Sachs is so confident

Market expectations are already “anchored”

Goldman Sachs expects December non-farm employment to increase by about 70,000, which is largely in line with market consensus. More importantly, current market pricing has already firmly anchored on a clear path: the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice by 25 basis points this year, with the first cut expected around late April.

What does this indicate? The market’s expectations for the Fed’s policy direction are already quite clear. A non-farm payrolls report close to expectations will only reinforce, rather than disrupt, the existing macroeconomic narrative. In other words, as long as the non-farm data does not contain a “surprise,” the market will continue to operate according to the established rate cut expectations.

How big of a surprise is needed to change the situation

According to Goldman Sachs’s analysis, only a “dramatic” upward or downward surprise in labor data would significantly shift the timing of rate cuts forward or backward. The key word here is “dramatic”—not a small deviation, but a clear, outsized surprise.

Market reactions under different scenarios

Goldman Sachs has evaluated different ranges of non-farm data:

This framework is quite clear: the market most desires moderate growth—enough to prove the economy is still expanding, but not so much as to hinder the Fed’s rate cut plans.

Implications for the crypto market

Liquidity expectations become more stable

The increased predictability of non-farm data means the market’s expectations for the Fed’s policy path are more stable. This is important for the crypto market because crypto assets are highly sensitive to liquidity changes. When easing policy expectations are clear, the market will have more confidence in allocating risk assets.

Avoiding “extreme scenario” shocks

Goldman Sachs emphasizes that “unless an extreme scenario occurs,” there will be no dramatic volatility. This means non-farm data is unlikely to be a trigger for market panic. For the crypto market, which has already undergone multiple adjustments, this predictability itself provides a foundation for stability.

Increased certainty of the rate cut cycle

If the non-farm data meets or slightly exceeds expectations, it will further confirm the market’s anticipation of a rate cut cycle starting mid-year. This creates long-term support for Bitcoin and other crypto assets—an environment of easing policy is generally favorable for risk assets.

What to watch for next

Although Goldman Sachs expects non-farm payrolls not to trigger dramatic volatility, the market still needs to pay attention to a few details:

• Whether employment data truly falls within the 70,000-100,000 range (most favorable range)
• Performance of wage growth data (affects inflation expectations)
• Changes in the unemployment rate (reflects the true health of the labor market)

While these details are unlikely to cause “dramatic” market reactions, they will influence investors’ expectations for subsequent policy adjustments.

Summary

Goldman Sachs’s forecast reflects a broader market reality: the current expectations for the Fed’s policy path are already very clear, and only a “dramatic” surprise in non-farm payrolls would alter this outlook. This is a positive signal for the crypto market—it suggests that the market is unlikely to panic over a single economic data release. Instead, as long as non-farm payrolls remain in a moderate growth range, expectations for a mid-year rate cut will be further reinforced, providing stable liquidity support for crypto assets. From another perspective, the clearer the macro policy expectations, the lower the volatility of risk assets—precisely the stable environment that the crypto market needs.