【Market Analysis】

ETH is currently hovering around 3099.4, being pressed down by the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, clearly in a bearish advantage. From the candlestick structure, the downward trend line is clearly visible, with each rebound high getting lower, which is a typical weak pattern.

How to interpret the MACD indicator? Both DIF and DEA are moving below the zero line. Although a green histogram has appeared, the energy is extremely weak. This is not a reversal signal; it’s clearly just a brief respite in the middle of a decline.

【Trading Logic】

Many people are easily fooled by that small bullish candle. Within the downward trend framework, rebounds are just accumulating momentum for the next wave of decline. What’s the current problem? The price can’t even reach the middle band, so the bulls’ counterattack can’t generate any momentum. The trading volume isn’t cooperating either; the follow-up orders are sparse. In essence, this rebound is just superficial.

【Operational Suggestions】

Wait for the price to rebound to the 3110-3120 range. Here, the middle band of the Bollinger Bands and the downward trend line form a double resistance, making it a good short entry point. You can enter in stages.

Set stop-loss above 3150. This level corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and once it’s effectively broken, the short-term downward structure may collapse.

In terms of targets, the first stage is 3050, and the second stage targets the 3000 integer level.

【Final Words】

The bulls are at the end of their strength, and the bears are steadily advancing. As long as the price doesn’t stabilize above the middle band or break through the downward trend line, the rebound is an excellent opportunity for short positions. Remember one thing: follow the trend, and defend against counter-trend moves.