#美国贸易赤字状况 "2026 Priority Stimulus Year," the US Treasury Secretary is frequently pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as soon as possible. Behind this is not only a policy signal but also a hint that the political election cycle is hijacking economic policy.

What does this mean for traders?

**The Independence of the Federal Reserve is Being Eroded**
Financial officials continue to publicly pressure the central bank, and the market is beginning to worry that monetary policy will be influenced by the election cycle. If rate cuts are primarily for short-term economic stimulation rather than data-driven, the credibility of the Federal Reserve will inevitably be compromised.

**Inflation Risks Are Not That Simple**
Before inflation has fully subsided, forcing rate cuts for political needs in 2026 is a trap. In the short term, the economy may look hot, but in the long term, it could trigger a rebound in inflation. This combination has deep implications for asset allocation and price forecasts.

**The Future Fed Chair Candidate Becomes a Key Variable**
Who takes the helm at the Federal Reserve will directly impact the continuity and predictability of monetary policy. This uncertainty is enough to shake global capital markets, especially assets sensitive to interest rates—from stocks to cryptocurrencies.

**Political Cycles Have Become a Core Variable in Trading**
2026 is the US midterm election year, and economic policies and political agendas are deeply intertwined. This means future policy choices will be harder to explain purely through economics, with political considerations taking a larger role.

**Global Market Spillover Effects**
As the world's largest economy, any movement in US monetary policy will transmit through capital flows, exchange rates, and interest rate differentials to every corner of the globe. From this perspective, every move by the Federal Reserve is closely watched by global traders and policymakers.

Ultimately, the policy direction will still depend on the Federal Reserve’s independent judgment, hard data such as inflation and employment, and the negotiations in Congress. But one thing is certain: in the coming years, understanding how the US political cycle influences monetary policy will become an essential part of trading decisions.