2026-01-09 12:24:09

Tonight at 21:30, the first non-farm payroll data of 2026 will be released. The strength or weakness of this data will directly influence the Federal Reserve's next interest rate policy.

According to the latest market survey, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged has already exceeded 80%. However, the actual market reaction can go in two possible directions:

**If the non-farm payroll data shows weakness**, expectations for rate cuts will sharply increase, and the previously suppressed bearish logic in the crypto market may reverse, potentially leading to a wave of rebound for Bitcoin. Conversely, **if the data meets expectations**, interest rate expectations will remain stable, and the market will lack clear short-term driving forces, so Bitcoin is likely to continue oscillating within the established range.

It is important to note that non-farm payroll nights are usually highly volatile. Regardless of your trading strategy, be sure to strictly control your positions to avoid being caught off guard by sudden market movements.

BTC-0,33%

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PretendingSerious

· 01-09 12:54

Non-farm night is causing trouble again, soaring one moment and plunging the next. Is my heart strong enough? Haha Wait, wait, wait. If this round of weak economic data really leads to a rate cut, will the coins that have been suppressed for so long finally get a breather? Positions must be light, or else you'll get cut again when the time comes. I promised not to trade, but I still get itchy. Who can understand this feeling? Stability again and again, it feels like stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies are all trapped. Truly torturous. Non-farm data is just gambling; no one can predict it accurately. Honestly managing risk is the real key.

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GasFeeCrier

· 01-09 12:54

Non-farm night is here again. Will this time truly determine the direction, or will it be another round of choppy consolidation? An 80% chance of maintaining interest rates sounds stable, but I bet the rate cut data will bring some surprises.

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GasFeeAssassin

· 01-09 12:44

Non-farm night is here again. This time, can we avoid the same old drama of rise and fall? I'm really tired. I've already reduced my positions and am waiting to see what kind of tricks the Federal Reserve will pull. If they cut interest rates, the currency will have a chance to survive. 80% remains unchanged... so the remaining 20% depends on luck. I'm betting on weak data.

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FarmHopper

· 01-09 12:31

Non-farm payrolls are really unpredictable; maintaining an 80% stability still depends on how the data turns out... Weak data is actually the hope. --- Ladies, are you all ready to get beaten? Non-farm payroll night is casino time. --- How many times have I said to control your position size? Yet some still go all-in expecting a liquidation. --- Will Bitcoin skyrocket immediately after weak data is released? I feel like it will just torment us repeatedly... --- The 80% probability of stability looks quite reassuring, but do you believe it? Anyway, I don't. --- Tonight's market movement will probably swing up and down three times within a few hours, exhausting. --- The forum is about to blow up again; let's wait and see the various "accurate predictions" after the fact.

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NFTDreamer

· 01-09 12:31

Non-farm night is just a gamble; anyway, I still lose when I’m supposed to, hope for a black swan tonight. My position has already been halved, just waiting to see what kind of tricks the Federal Reserve folks are up to this time. 80% chance of staying still? Then the remaining 20% is our chance to make money. The question is, can we seize it? If you ask me, instead of guessing non-farm, why not go all-in and wait for AI narratives to rescue the market? Don’t be fooled by fancy analysis; honestly, it’s still about the Fed’s mood. That feeling is really suffocating. Range-bound? Ha, every time I hear that, it ends up being broken through.

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