Tonight's non-farm payroll data will be released, and the subsequent trend of ETH may unfold in three typical ways. Let's analyze each one.

The first scenario is a significantly negative data release. The price will be quickly hammered down, but the key is whether this decline can continue. If the downward movement does not deepen, it is highly likely that the market makers are creating liquidity — sweeping out those long positions with high leverage, then preparing for a rebound to harvest. Be cautious of a sharp rebound at this point, as a rebound is essentially a market maker's operation to change hands.

The second scenario is a clearly bullish non-farm data. The market will rapidly rally following the data release, but there's a detail — you need to confirm whether the rally is truly effective. An effective rally will inevitably involve a pullback without breaking lower, followed by further gains. If the price surges in a straight line without any signs of distribution, be careful — large funds might be taking advantage of the abundant data to unload positions. Once the strong upward momentum loses steam, the previous rally becomes meaningless for the subsequent trend.

The third scenario is when the data is close to expectations, and the market cannot give a clear direction. At this point, it’s up to the big players to set the tone. The usual tactic is a false breakout followed by a reverse move to harvest. The real intention behind this false breakout is to probe — to see which side has more concentrated stop-loss orders and which side has richer liquidity.

A tip for short-term traders: try not to jump in immediately when the data is released. Wait until the release is over, liquidity has been absorbed, and the true direction begins to become clear — your chances of success will be much higher.