Barclays Chief Market Strategist Julien Lafargue recently expressed the view that revisions to US economic data will become a key focus for the market—especially the payroll adjustments from the past few months, which directly reflect the real impact of the US government shutdown. However, he also admitted that whether these data can shake the current market consensus (i.e., the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in the first quarter) remains uncertain.

Interestingly, this strategist emphasized that employment reports are just one piece of the big puzzle. What truly determines the direction of the US economy will depend on how inflation data performs, plus the upcoming ruling by the US Supreme Court on tariff issues—these three factors combined will reveal the Fed’s next move. For traders, paying attention to the trends of these indicators can help make more accurate market judgments.