Every time the US non-farm payroll data is released, the crypto world goes through a baptism. In the first two hours after the data is out, mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin often experience a 3%-5% plunge or surge, and sometimes there’s an instant spike or dip, hitting stop-losses for longs or forcing shorts to close positions—both sides get hurt.

But in the long run, the influence of non-farm data on the crypto market is gradually weakening. Now, many major US banks are involved in Bitcoin-related businesses, and the influx of spot ETF funds has long outpaced the new coins mined each year by several times. What does this reflect? The market is becoming institutionalized. The true factors that determine the long-term trend of prices are those fundamental elements—on-chain activity, policy guidance, capital flows. The volatility caused by non-farm data is usually digested within a day or two.

Simply put, the logic is:

Data exceeds expectations → Rate hike expectations rise → Short-term price pressure

Data falls short of expectations → Rate cut expectations increase → Possible rebound

The core point is this: Does the non-farm data break the market’s existing judgment on Federal Reserve interest rate policies and the dollar’s trend? From my personal perspective, tonight’s data leans bullish, but how it ultimately plays out depends on how the actual money flows.

Rather than frequently chasing highs and lows and getting caught, it’s better to calmly observe the market rhythm. Whether it’s a slow bull market or sector rotation, the key is to have a clear judgment framework and risk management awareness, so you won’t lose your way amid intense volatility.