Recently, the market has been focusing on two major events—non-farm payroll data and tariff rulings. These two factors indirectly influence the US Dollar Index and, in turn, affect the rhythm of Bitcoin.

First, let's talk about the non-farm payroll data. If the employment data comes in healthy, strong employment figures will give the Federal Reserve a reason to maintain high interest rates or keep them unchanged. This shifts market expectations away from rate cuts. In this scenario, the attractiveness of the dollar clearly increases—after all, high interest rates mean holding dollars can yield better returns. Once the US Dollar Index rises, the pressure on Bitcoin, which is priced in dollars, increases. Conversely, if the non-farm data is weak and signals weaker economic growth, the Fed may prefer to cut rates to stimulate the economy, which would weaken the dollar. Market expectations this time are likely to lean towards positive data, so the dollar may find support.

Now, regarding tariff rulings. If trade protection measures escalate, global capital will start recalculating expectations about the future economic landscape. During such times, investors tend to flock to dollar assets for safety, using the dollar as a hedge. The more protectionist the tariff policies become, the stronger the dollar's "safe-haven premium" will be, making the US Dollar Index more resilient. For risk assets like Bitcoin, this environment can exert downward pressure.

Overall, a positive non-farm payroll report combined with protectionist tariff trends will push the US Dollar Index higher, while a strong dollar usually means Bitcoin faces some short-term pressure. This is a key point to watch.