The technical outlook for gold is currently at an interesting juncture. From a pattern perspective, if there is no sudden disruption from the non-farm payrolls data, the breakout trend in gold has already established a clear bullish foundation. The issue is that the non-farm payrolls data is about to be released, and it's hard to say how much impact it will actually have. Only when there is a significant deviation between the actual data and the expected values can it truly alter the dominant rhythm dictated by technical analysis. Caution is needed to prevent the price from surging prematurely before the data release, creating an intraday new high.

From a price perspective, gold has effectively broken through the trendline. Even if it pulls back from the 4480 level, the strong support below remains firmly anchored at the key trendline around 4440. If you prefer a conservative approach, you can treat the 4445 level as a signal for a low buy entry, with a stop loss set at 30 points. Using this support level for technical rebound trades offers a good cost-performance ratio.

From a cycle structure standpoint, the daily chart shows gold maintaining a relatively strong pattern supported by short-term moving averages. Each correction is relatively limited in magnitude and duration, suggesting there is likely more room for upward movement. Regarding the non-farm payrolls, the expected figure is 65,000, compared to the previous 60,000. Combining this with Wednesday’s ADP data performance, it’s inferred that the deviation in non-farm payrolls might narrow this time, and the market is likely to repeat the pattern of initial decline followed by rise after the ADP release. On the 4-hour chart, gold is oscillating above the short-term moving averages, with frequent long lower shadows on the candlesticks, indicating that downward momentum has significantly weakened. In the short term, the bulls still hold the upper hand.

Tonight’s trading strategy is quite clear: for the bulls, if the price retraces to the 4445-4450 zone and the non-farm payrolls data is positive or below expectations, consider entering a small long position, with targets at 4475-4485-4500, gradually exiting in stages. For the bears, if the price rebounds to 4490-4495 and the data is negative or significantly below expectations, consider entering a small short position, with targets at 4450-4430-4425, exiting in stages.

One final reminder: volatility will increase significantly after the non-farm payrolls data is released. Keep your position size within 10%, and always set stop losses on each trade. Never let emotions drive you into chasing highs or selling lows.