The unemployment rate is the key to tonight's outcome. Why did Bitcoin fall into a stalemate before the non-farm payrolls?

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report is set to be released tonight at 21:30 Beijing time, marking the first key economic data point of 2026. Interestingly, ahead of this critical moment, Bitcoin remains unusually calm—only a 0.2% increase over the past 24 hours, as the entire crypto market waits for this report to set the tone for subsequent movements. Behind this “calm,” market participants are deeply anticipating the data and paying close attention to the unemployment rate.

Why the Market Is “Holding Steady”

Non-farm payrolls are the decisive factor tonight

According to FactSet forecasts, the U.S. economy is expected to add 55,000 jobs in December, with the unemployment rate potentially dropping from 4.6% to 4.5%. This seems like routine economic data, but this time, it’s different.

Previous figures have been severely distorted due to government shutdowns and federal employees’ “buyout resignations,” leading to doubts about the reliability of this report. More importantly, Fed Chair Powell has previously hinted that official employment data may systematically overestimate actual figures—by about 60,000 jobs per month. This suggests that real employment growth might have already stalled or even turned negative.

Against this backdrop, the market’s focus shifts from “new jobs added” to the “unemployment rate.”

The unemployment rate is the real “decider”

If the unemployment rate fails to fall below 4.5%, or remains at a high 4.6%, it could trigger the so-called “Sam Rule,” which is viewed as a recession signal and may cause market panic. Conversely, if the unemployment rate does decline, it could ease fears of a hard landing for the economy.

This directly impacts expectations for Fed rate cuts. Currently, the probability of the Fed holding steady in January is as high as 88.4%. The market is more focused on whether the data can confirm a “gradual cooling” of the labor market rather than a “breakdown.”

Weak economic data would reinforce expectations for further rate cuts, potentially weakening the dollar and pushing risk assets like Bitcoin higher. On the other hand, strong data could delay rate cut expectations and exert pressure on the crypto market.

Current Technical Outlook

Bitcoin’s Stalemate

Technical analysis shows Bitcoin is oscillating within the $89,000–$91,500 range. It dipped to $89,200 last night before rebounding, and after reaching a high of $91,580 this morning, it pulled back. Currently, it is consolidating around $90,400.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin has broken below its short-term upward trendline, oscillating between the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. The MACD has formed a death cross with increasing green bars, indicating a bearish short-term trend. Although the 4-hour chart has rebounded from the lower Bollinger Band and RSI has moved out of oversold territory, the recovery lacks momentum and lacks a clear bullish drive.

Asset Performance Divergence

There is a clear divergence in the crypto market. SOL has gained 2.8% over the past 24 hours, showing relative strength; meanwhile, ETH and BNB have remained relatively stable with little fluctuation. This reflects an uneven risk appetite—some funds are seeking opportunities, but most are on the sidelines.

More notably, the Coinbase premium index, which reflects institutional demand in the U.S., has turned negative and fallen to a 10-month low. This indicates that during the price rally, U.S. institutional investors’ buying interest has been weak, potentially limiting further upward momentum.

Three Possible Scenarios for the Non-Farm Payrolls Data

What to Watch Next

• Will the unemployment rate truly fall to 4.5%?: This will directly determine whether a recession signal is triggered.
• Discrepancies between official data and actual conditions: Powell’s remarks suggest the data may need to be taken with a grain of salt.
• Future Fed policy signals: Will the pace of rate cuts accelerate?
• Institutional sentiment shifts: Will the Coinbase premium turn positive again, reflecting restored institutional confidence?

Summary

Bitcoin’s current calmness is not due to market weakness but rather anticipation of a critical decisive moment. The non-farm payroll report, especially the unemployment rate, will be the “decider” tonight, determining whether the crypto market breaks upward or continues to pull back. Technically, Bitcoin remains within the $89,000–$91,500 range, awaiting a catalyst. The institutional fatigue also needs a new trigger to change sentiment. After the data release at 21:30 tonight, the market’s silence will be broken, and the next direction for risk assets will become clearer.