Have you noticed that recently the market forecast data is quite interesting—

Looking at data from a prediction platform about Bitcoin's January trend: a 26% chance to reach $100,000, a 59% chance to hit $95,000, and a 43% chance to drop to $85,000.

At first glance, these numbers do seem a bit messy. The probabilities of rising and falling add up to more than 100%. How should we interpret this?

Actually, this highlights the core issue—the market opinions are currently very divided. Small retail investors are anxious, but the big players with real capital are quietly taking action behind the scenes. I analyzed on-chain data and found several interesting signals.

**Whales are accumulating and not selling**

In the past seven days, 12 new whale addresses holding over 1,000 BTC have appeared. More importantly, the net outflow from exchanges has increased by 30% compared to last month. What does this mean? Large funds are not panicking; instead, they are gradually transferring coins off exchanges to accumulate.

**Options market has some tricks**

Although the probability of reaching $100,000 is only 26%, the trading volume of call options has doubled in the past couple of days. This "low probability, high payout" strategy usually indicates institutions are preparing for extreme market moves.

**Macro environment is improving**

The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes have signaled a slowdown in rate hikes, and the US dollar index has started to weaken. When the dollar weakens, funds naturally flow into risk assets. The crypto market has always followed liquidity.

My previous judgment was that "late December is a buildup period, and there should be a rebound in January," and the current trend is validating that logic. The greater the market divergence, the stronger the underlying force—this anxiety itself is a form of energy accumulation.

In the short term, there may be some volatility, but don’t be scared off by the noise. On-chain data is honest, and the changes in big capital positions are also truthful. Hold your spot positions; the first quarter has just begun, and the story ahead will be even more exciting.