2026-01-09 12:34:38

Tonight at 21:30 US releases December unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data. These two indicators have a direct impact on gold prices. Let's analyze the market logic.

**How Data Influences Gold Prices**

Regarding the unemployment rate, the previous value was 4.6%, with an expectation of 4.5%. If the actual number is lower than expected, it indicates a strong US labor market, which may lead the Federal Reserve to adopt a hawkish stance, likely weakening gold; conversely, if the unemployment rate exceeds expectations, risk aversion increases, and gold prices tend to rise.

For non-farm payrolls, the previous figure was 64,000, with an expectation of 60,000. An actual number exceeding 60,000 suggests economic resilience, putting pressure on gold; if below expectations, it signals a recession, and gold prices may be pushed higher.

Currently, the market leans towards bearish gold, but recent US economic data has been relatively uneventful, and actual results often surpass expectations. Tonight's market could be particularly volatile, so a light position is recommended.

**The 4-Hour Chart's Critical Levels**

Recently, gold has been oscillating between 4427 and 4500, with the current price around 4473. These two levels are key tonight:

— Resistance at 4500.54: If data is positive (higher unemployment rate, lower non-farm payrolls), breaking this level could lead to a surge toward 4520-4530.

— Support at 4427.36: If data is negative (lower unemployment rate, higher non-farm payrolls), a break below could easily bring prices down to around 4400.

— If data meets expectations, expect the price to fluctuate within this range, and trading should focus on high and low points.

**Specific Trading Strategies**

Long logic: If the price retraces to the 4440-4450 zone and data is indeed favorable, consider small long positions targeting 4475, 4485, and 4500.

Short logic: If the price rebounds to 4490-4495 and the data is negative, small short positions can be taken with targets at 4450, 4430, and 4425.

**Risk Management Must Be Strict**

Once non-farm data is released, gold can gap sharply. Keep positions below 10% of your capital as a baseline. Stop-loss orders should be set in advance. Don't be tempted to chase high or sell low during high volatility. The era of uneventful data is over; disciplined trading is more important than ever.

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FlashLoanLarry

· 4h ago

Tonight's data release, if non-farm payrolls surprise to the downside, will be a wild celebration for gold. Anyway, I'm just watching with a small position. Breaking below 4500 really means you need to be cautious, it's easy to rush up to 4530, don't be tempted. An increase in the unemployment rate is the real key; other data are just clouds. At this time, a 10% position is enough; greedy people have already been educated. On the night before non-farm payrolls, don't chase orders, waiting and watching is the wise choice. Whether gold is bottoming out or reaching a top in this round, we'll know tonight. That 4450 level really needs to hold, or it will drop straight to 4400. Brothers, don't think about getting rich overnight. With such fierce data volatility, stop-losses must be placed at proper levels. If expectations are all met, it's a consolidation phase—buying low and selling high is the easiest way. Tonight feels even crazier than last year's non-farm payrolls; gold's temper is getting more and more fiery.

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AlphaWhisperer