#市场情绪与链上结构 Seeing Bitcoin's Q4 decline of over 22%, what does this number really tell us? A technical rebound ≠ a true recovery, and this must be understood clearly.

I've seen too many people get blinded by short-term rebounds. A $90,000 rebound looks comfortable, but a closer look at liquidity, macro background, and market sentiment all tell the same story — this is a correction within a downtrend, not the start of a new cycle. Funds haven't re-entered the market; it's just a technical rebound after sustained selling pressure earlier.

What’s more concerning is that Bitcoin is still below its early-year levels, down 30% from the 2025 high. At such times, two traps are most likely: one is FOMO-driven rebounds, thinking the bottom has arrived and rushing in; the other is trap set by big players, using a few hours of price increase to lure retail investors into a trap. I’ve experienced setbacks in this market and know the tricks well.

When a strong seasonal cycle coincides with tightening liquidity and macro uncertainties, history tends to repeat itself. At this time of year, the risk of short-term volatility is actually the highest, not the safest. Instead of chasing rebounds, it’s better to wait until market sentiment truly shifts and on-chain structures genuinely improve. Living longer is far more important than making quick money.