⚠Today, January 9, 2026, the Supreme Court is expected to make a critical decision regarding the legality of the comprehensive tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

The potential market impacts depending on whether the decision overturns (the government) or continues (the government’s) policies are summarized as follows:

🟢Scenario 1: Reversal of Tariffs (Decision Against Trump)
If the court rules that Trump overused this authority and that the tariffs are unlawful:

↘️ Relief Rally in Stocks: Short-term optimism and a "relief rally" (relief rally) are likely to be observed in the markets. Particularly, importers under cost pressure and the retail sector (Walmart, Target, etc.) may see positive divergence in their stocks.

↘️ Expectation of Billions of Dollars in Refunds: Refunds for tariffs paid so far by importing companies, estimated at (around 150-170 billion dollars), could be initiated. This would create a significant cash inflow for the relevant companies’ balance sheets.

↘️ Support for the Technology Sector: Tech and electronics giants dependent on global supply chains may gain value due to expectations of lower costs.

↘️ Decrease in Inflation Expectations: Falling costs of imported goods could reduce inflationary pressures. This may have a dovish effect on the Fed’s interest rate policy.

🛑Uncertainty Risk (Plan B): Even if the decision is overturned, the Trump administration might reimpose tariffs using other laws, such as the (1974 Trade Act). This could create market anxiety about "when will the new tariff package come?"

🔴Scenario 2: Continuation of Tariffs (Decision in Favor of Trump)
If the court approves the President’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs:

↘️ Selling Pressure in Markets: Expectations of ongoing or even escalating trade wars could lead to selling pressure in stock markets, especially in (S&P 500 and Nasdaq).

↘️ Strengthening of the Dollar: Rising global trade risks may drive investors toward the "safe haven" of the US dollar. The dollar index (DXY) could rise.

↘️ Gold and Safe Havens: Increasing geopolitical and economic uncertainties could boost demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

↘️ Fears of Higher Taxes: The decision could strengthen the government’s hand, creating a perception that "arbitrary" tax increases are now more likely in the future. This could negatively impact long-term investment decisions.

↘️ Inflationary Pressure: Persistent high tariffs could keep consumer prices elevated and keep interest rates high for longer periods.

Summary
The market is currently pricing in uncertainty. A reversal decision would create a short-term positive shock (stock buying), while a continuation decision indicates that the current stressful and costly environment will persist, reducing risk appetite.