#密码资产动态追踪 Two Major Events Tonight Could Deal a Heavy Blow to the Crypto Market

The US December non-farm payroll data will be released tonight. This is the first comprehensive employment report since the government shutdown, and global markets are watching closely. The expected increase in employment ranges from 25,000 to over a hundred thousand, with the unemployment rate possibly dropping slightly from 4.6% to 4.5%. How critical is this data? Let me tell you—

If the employment figures meet expectations (60,000-100,000 new jobs), the Federal Reserve can continue its rate cut pace, which is positive for risk assets like $BTC; but if the numbers far exceed expectations (over 120,000), rate cuts might be delayed, putting short-term pressure on Bitcoin; conversely, if the data is too weak (below 50,000), rate hike expectations will cool significantly, and Bitcoin could see a rally.

Simultaneously, there is the Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariffs case. Industry insiders generally believe there is about an 80% chance that the case will be ruled "unconstitutional," with only a 20% chance of maintaining the status quo. If overturned, US fiscal pressure will increase, and investors will be more inclined to seek safe-haven assets, naturally boosting demand for cryptocurrencies; even if the ruling is upheld or sent back to Congress for reconsideration, this uncertainty alone can preserve Bitcoin’s hedge value.

In short, these two "double shocks" during the first trading week of 2026 are likely to trigger Bitcoin’s first major volatility.