#比特币价格走势 Seeing James Wynn start to go long with 40x again, my first reaction is: be cautious.

This "bankrupt whale's" predictive pattern is very familiar—first throwing out an extreme figure (a doubling to $175,000), grabbing attention, then tapering it down to "at least a 10% rebound." I've seen this kind of rhetoric many times, and each time, a large number of retail investors follow suit. The problem is, predictions from well-known figures are themselves part of market sentiment, and emotions are the easiest to reverse.

From a technical perspective, BTC has fallen from 120,000 to now, and there is indeed a rebound demand. But it’s important to clarify: a rebound does not equal a trend reversal; a 10% rebound might just be a technical correction within the downtrend. I’ve experienced many situations where "bullish signals" appeared, only for the market to continue falling.

What truly matters is: where is the current entry cost? Is the risk-reward ratio reasonable? Instead of betting on probabilities based on influencers’ predictions, these are the questions to ask. The logic of shifting funds from stocks and real estate into BTC seems reasonable, but it needs time to verify—it's not something that can be decided in a single sentence.

Rather than chasing after bullish predictions, ask yourself: if Bitcoin continues to fall by 20%, can you handle it? If you can, then consider deploying; if not, stay on the sidelines. The core of surviving long on-chain is—always prioritize risk management.