Will the 2025 crypto bull market break the four-year cycle curse? What the market characteristics indicate about the next step

Bitcoin is currently stable at the $90k level, and Q3/2025 is coming to an end. A key question faces investors: Will this bull run, following the 2021 cycle, repeat the historical pattern of “rise first, then crash” in 2025, or is this time truly different?

Market Faces a Major Shift: From Cultural Carnival to Financial Integration

In 2021, the crypto market resembled a street carnival—NFTs rampant, GameFi promising “play to earn real money,” and Axie Infinity popularizing the “play and earn” dream. The Metaverse concept was everywhere, with people believing owning a virtual land could match real estate. Memecoin culture emerged, with DOGE, SHIBA, and others becoming social media phenomena. All this drove retail FOMO and sparked a DeFi explosion and Layer 1 competition.

By 2025, the market mood is completely different. This is no longer a young people’s creative feast but an elegant banquet of institutional finance—Wall Street has officially entered. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are live, allowing pension funds, insurance companies, and corporate capital to easily allocate crypto assets like stocks. Stablecoins have become the “blockchain dollar” for cross-border payments, RWA (real-world asset on-chain) transforms real estate, bonds, and art into highly liquid on-chain assets. The AI×Crypto combo has birthed DeFAI projects. DePIN is linking blockchain with real infrastructure—decentralized internet, energy trading markets, on-chain data markets, one after another.

This time, Memecoins still exist but have evolved. Platforms like Pump.fun gamify token issuance, enabling ordinary people to launch projects with a single click. InfoFi platforms turn social information into trading liquidity. Compared to the “pure entertainment” of 2021, the Memecoin ecosystem in 2025 is deeply integrated with real social trends, political narratives, and more.

From Uncertainty to Framework: Regulation Takes Shape

The regulatory vacuum of 2021 led to wild growth in the crypto market. SEC Chair at the time classified all assets except Bitcoin as securities, leading to endless lawsuits that dampened builders’ confidence and caused retail anxiety. Back then, there were only Bitcoin futures ETFs, no spot ETFs, and no clear stablecoin framework; institutional investors were cautious.

By 2025, the policy environment has completely flipped. The new government signals pro-crypto stance, and the previous SEC Chair has resigned. The GENIUS Act (effective July 18, 2025) for the first time defines “stablecoins used for payments” at the federal level—requiring 1:1 USD reserves, transparent backing, and regulatory frameworks at federal and state levels. Within a month of enactment, stablecoin market cap surged from $260B to $278B.

The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Plan (March 2025) is a landmark event: the US government no longer auctions seized Bitcoin but includes it in the national strategic reserve. New Hampshire, Texas, and others are establishing their own BTC reserves. This effectively repositions Bitcoin from a speculative asset to a national asset, similar to gold.

What does regulatory clarity mean? The crypto market has upgraded from the “Wild West” to a “licensed financial market.” This compliance attracts more long-term, large-scale capital inflows but may also smooth out volatility—compared to the extreme emotional swings of 2021, the 2025 rise might be more gradual and steady.

Can the Four-Year Cycle Continue?

Bitcoin halving and the four-year cycle have long been linked: halving → supply tightening → bull market → extreme rise → correction → bear market → accumulation → next four years. The bull markets of 2013, 2017, and 2021 strictly followed this rhythm. According to this logic, 2025 should mark the end of a new cycle.

However, some seasoned analysts (like former Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager Raoul Pal) believe this time might be different. As Bitcoin increasingly becomes an institutional reserve asset and a national strategic commodity, its volatility cycle could extend from four to five years or longer. The maturing of the system usually “smooths” the cycle’s aggressiveness.

This leaves two scenarios:

Scenario 1: The four-year cycle repeats—the current window may be counting down; after large gains, quick profit-taking, reducing leverage, and rebalancing are necessary. This is the conservative approach.

Scenario 2: The cycle extends—the bull market could last months or years, opening new opportunity windows. But the risk is overconfidence leading to missed profits at the high.

Regardless of the scenario, the core principle remains: You cannot predict the market precisely, but you can fully control risk management. If your positions keep you awake at night, you are already beyond a safe threshold. At this point, you should take profits, reduce stress, and rebalance.

The Essence of Asset Rotation

Whether Bitcoin, real estate, or stocks, all assets fluctuate in cycles. Crypto assets are no exception. Four-year, five-year, ten-year cycles are like reincarnations—those who understand and master them will accumulate long-term wealth for themselves and their families, while those who ignore them often see dreams shattered at the high and despair at the low.

The key is to stay alert: no asset will rise forever, and no decline is eternal. Cycles are natural laws and opportunities. In the rhythm of global financial markets, crypto assets are gradually syncing, moving from the periphery to the center, transforming from a guessing game into a rule-based competition.

Disclaimer: This content does not constitute investment, tax, legal, or financial advice. It is for educational purposes only. Conduct thorough independent research, understand the associated risks, and make informed investment decisions.