#密码资产动态追踪 The crypto market is experiencing multiple trigger points tonight, with risks and opportunities coexisting.

**Three Key Policy Highlights**

Once the Supreme Court's tariff ruling is announced, it will directly impact fiscal policy expectations—U.S. long-term Treasury yields may rise, and global liquidity faces tightening pressure. Risk assets like Bitcoin will be under short-term pressure. Simultaneously, the crypto market structure bill is at a critical juncture; Wall Street and industry representatives are engaged in substantive negotiations regarding the Senate proposal, which is crucial for establishing a regulatory framework for digital assets. Additionally, Trump's team has finalized the Federal Reserve Chair candidate, and the new Chair's monetary policy style will significantly influence market liquidity expectations.

**Economic Data Sets the Short-Term Pace**

Tonight's non-farm payrolls data release is key. Weak data compared to expectations will reinforce rate cut expectations and benefit risk assets; conversely, strong data will keep the market volatile and consolidating.

**On-Chain Signals to Watch**

BTC spot ETF experienced strong net inflows at the beginning of the year but has recently seen continuous outflows. The initial inflows have been exhausted, reflecting a cautious attitude among large institutions. However, on-chain whales are gradually closing short positions and turning bullish; institutions like Bitmine are continuously pledging large amounts of Ethereum, which could help alleviate subsequent selling pressure risks.

**Market Sentiment Snapshot**

JPMorgan research reports suggest this round of crypto sell-off is nearing its end, ETF outflows are stabilizing, but the Fear & Greed Index remains in the fear zone, and futures positions are below historical highs. The market sentiment remains cautious, requiring stronger signals to reverse expectations.