When is the Next Crypto Bull Run Coming? 2025 Breaks the 4-Year Cycle

With Bitcoin (BTC) currently valued at $90.47K and the market entering Q3 of 2025, a burning question is on investors’ minds: Are we truly reaching the peak of the bullish cycle, or is the traditional 4-year pattern about to change? The answer might surprise many.

The Historical Crypto Cycle: From Regular to Unpredictable

For decades, the cryptocurrency market has danced to a precisely calibrated metronome: every 4 years, tied to Bitcoin halving, a new bullish cycle would rise from the ashes of the previous winter. In 2013, 2017, 2021 — and now in 2025 — the pattern repeated with almost unsettling consistency.

But what exactly is a bull run? It’s not just a price increase for its own sake. It’s a phase of transformation where capital flows in, innovation accelerates, and the market decides which narrative will dominate the next 12-24 months. Not all bull runs are equal: each cycle tells a different story about the sector’s priorities.

2021: When Digital Finance Was a Party

Looking back at 2021, the market resembled a large public event — chaotic, enthusiastic, accessible to everyone. The driving themes were clearly identifiable:

NFTs and Digital Culture: Non-Fungible Tokens weren’t just assets; they were a cultural phenomenon promising instant wealth. The idea that “your JPEG can be worth millions” captured the collective imagination.

Play-to-Earn and the Metaverse: Projects like Axie Infinity offered an irresistible narrative — earning real money while playing in virtual worlds. Virtual reality platforms like Decentraland and The Sandbox represented the future of digital socialization.

Explosion of Layer-1 Altcoins: The era of “ETH killers” saw Solana, Avalanche, and Terra fiercely competing. Institutional entry — MicroStrategy, Tesla, El Salvador — brought Bitcoin into the mainstream financial scene.

Memecoin as a Social Phenomenon: DOGE, SHIBA, FLOKI weren’t just tokens; they were movements democratizing access to crypto markets.

This cycle laid the groundwork for modern infrastructure and global awareness. But it also brought speculative excesses that inevitably called for correction.

2025: When Institutional Finance Enters the Game

Moving toward 2025, the landscape has drastically transformed. If 2021 was a street party, 2025 resembles a gala dinner in Manhattan’s financial halls. The protagonists have changed: instead of digital creators and retail enthusiasts, we now see pension funds, central banks, and Fortune 500 companies.

Real-World Asset Tokenization (RWA): The revolution now involves real estate, bonds, art — all converted into highly liquid, transparent forms on the blockchain. Projections indicate a RWA market reaching $16 trillion by 2030. It’s no longer science fiction; it’s practical finance.

AI Meets Blockchain: DeFi protocols are enhancing the sector with smart automation. AI trading bots and decentralized data management systems are transforming how markets operate.

Crypto ETFs and Normalization: Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have removed entry barriers for institutional investors. Now you can invest in crypto with the same ease as a stock fund. Stablecoins have become the equivalent of “digital cash” — faster, cheaper, globally accessible.

DePIN — Decentralized Infrastructure: The fusion of blockchain and the real world continues with decentralized internet networks, tokenized energy markets, and on-chain AI datasets.

Memecoin 2.0: If NFTs dominated culture in 2021, by 2025 memecoins are taking over. But they’re no longer just fun. Platforms like Pump.fun and politically themed tokens (Trump token, Biden token) show how memes have become the fastest vehicle for retail liquidity. InfoFi adds an extra layer: attention → trend → liquidity.

The Big Difference: Regulation and Legitimacy

In 2021, regulation was the great unknown enemy. The SEC, under Gary Gensler, considered almost everything except Bitcoin a security, trapping the sector in legal limbo. Institutions stayed at a distance, retail remained nervous.

2025 tells a completely different story.

Political Shift: With Donald Trump’s election and Gensler’s resignation, sentiment toward crypto has radically improved. Pro-crypto laws are being implemented, and political leaders actively participate in the ecosystem.

The GENUIS LAW (July 2025): The first federal law clearly defining “payment stablecoins” — backed 1:1 by USD or secure assets, with public reserves and oversight. Within a month of signing, stablecoin market capitalization surged from $260 milliards to $278 milliards (+7%).

Bitcoin Strategic Reserves (March 2025): Confiscated Bitcoin is now held as part of the US strategic reserves, not sold. States like New Hampshire and Texas are creating their own reserves.

These moves have transformed Bitcoin from a speculative asset into a legitimate reserve asset — akin to gold, but for the 21st century.

Is the 4-Year Cycle Still Holding?

Here’s the big question dividing analysts and investors. Historically, the cycle was almost mechanical in predictability. But experts like Raoul Pal, former hedge fund manager at Goldman Sachs and co-founder of Real Vision, suggest something radically different: Bitcoin might be transitioning to a 5-year cycle, or perhaps longer.

If true, the implications are profound:

Scenario 1 — Confirmed 4-year cycle: The market has little time left before correction. The smart strategy: take profits, reduce exposure, rebalance your portfolio.

Scenario 2 — Extended 5+ year cycle: This bull run could last much longer than expected, creating extraordinary opportunities. But the danger is overconfidence — investors might miss the right moment to realize gains.

The universal lesson remains unchanged: you cannot control the market, but you can control risk. If you constantly feel stressed managing your assets, you’re probably overexposed. Proper risk management means taking profits regularly and maintaining a balanced portfolio.

Conclusion: Endless Cycles, Infinite Opportunities

All financial assets move in cycles — whether they last 4 years, 5 years, or a decade. Cryptos are no exception, but they are increasingly aligning with broader global financial rhythms. Nothing rises forever, nothing falls forever. Cycles are links in a chain.

The real divide between winners and losers isn’t in predicting when the cycle ends, but in understanding how to ride it intelligently. Those who grasp this principle will build lasting wealth.

2025 marks a crucial moment not only for Bitcoin’s price but for the role cryptocurrencies will play in global finance for decades to come.