#非农就业数据 BTC may surge to 100k-150k or even higher?

Driving factors include institutional adoption, regulatory friendliness, and mainstreaming of stablecoins.

🌅Institutions are "switching hands," macro is "waiting for the wind"

"The market is not waiting for positive news, but for direction. The entry of a certain exchange and the outflow of spot ETFs happen simultaneously, which is a typical institutional switching period: smart money is positioning for the next battleground (BTC, ETH, SOL), while panic money is being washed out of Bitcoin."

📊Market Dashboard

BTC: $91,000 (-0.2%) | Support $90,000 / Resistance $94,000

ETH: $3,100 (-2.1%) | Support $3,050 / Resistance $3,200

Key Indicators:
📉 ETF Funds: One exchange saw a single-day outflow of $312 million, offsetting buy orders from another.
⚖️ Policy Risks: The market awaits the final decision on tariff policies, with risk sentiment slightly rising.

🔍 Daily Focus｜Wall Street's New Battlefield: SOL

Event: A major investment bank officially submitted ETF registration applications for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. Why it matters:

Breaking the duopoly: This is the first top-tier investment bank to publicly bet on SOL, officially bringing the narrative of the three crypto giants into Wall Street’s view.

Proactive move: Instead of acting as underwriters, this bank’s Investment Management division is directly issuing products, with plans to include staking features.

Capital Scenario:
Short-term: SOL gains strong backing, potentially leading to outflows from ETH.
Risk: SEC approval for "Staking ETFs" remains uncertain; rejection could trigger short-term corrections.

📰 Top News｜Key Information

1️⃣ ETF buying has cooled, selling pressure has emerged, with a leading exchange initiating redemptions, and net outflows expanding to $243 million. Profit-taking above $94,000 is very strong, with short-term momentum lacking for a breakout.

2️⃣ New Regulatory Front: A senator proposed the "2026 Financial Prediction Market Integrity Act," aiming to ban federal officials from participating in prediction markets, which could trigger a new wave of regulatory scrutiny over the prediction sector.

3️⃣ Banking sector turns to stablecoins: An association sent a letter to the Senate warning that "certain bills" have loopholes, fearing unregulated stablecoin issuers offering high yields through "staking collaborations" could drain bank deposits.

4️⃣ Macro Shadow: The ruling on tariff policies will directly impact the USD trend and global liquidity. Bitcoin is currently consolidating around $91k , reflecting macroeconomic uncertainty pricing in.

💡 Risk Radar｜Risk Radar

⚠️ Liquidity Trap: If BTC remains in the $90k-$92k range with decreasing volume, beware of "painting the door" declines during weekend liquidity crunch.

⚠️ Altcoin Leverage: Despite a market correction, some altcoin contracts’ holdings have not decreased but increased, often a precursor to chain reactions of liquidations. Avoid high-leverage longs.

📝 TL;DR｜Trader’s Memo

The application of SOL ETF by a major investment bank is a long-term super bullish signal, but short-term ETF outflows should not be ignored.

Main risk factors are shifting to macro policies; closely monitor policy decisions and legislative developments.

Not Financial Advice: Market sentiment is mixed, volatility is increasing, manage leverage carefully.