2026-01-09 22:22:00

VanEck's Ethereum research presents two completely different target prices: $300 in a bearish scenario and $154,000 in a bullish scenario. What's going on with this chart?

One number is 500 times the other. Is this extreme divergence in forecast models a rigorous scenario analysis, or is it just to generate buzz by widening the range? Think about it carefully—such a prediction span from $300 to $154,000 indicates that the researchers have fundamentally different understandings of the driving forces behind ETH's value—possibly due to completely different judgments on Web3 adoption speed, macro liquidity, or the competitive landscape.

This reminds us that while institutional reports contain large amounts of data, the final conclusions depend on the assumptions about the future. The same fundamentals can lead to vastly different outcomes under different hypothetical conditions.

ETH0.24%

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GhostWalletSleuth

· 19h ago

A 500x difference... Are you doing research or playing roulette? What is VanEck thinking? Really? Writing $300 to $154k in a report? I could also predict ETH will rise to twenty thousand dollars next year or go to zero. Or are institutions just deliberately leaving themselves an escape route for their predictions? If it goes up, they say "bullish scenario is valid"; if it goes down, they say "bearish scenario is valid." It's a win-win situation. Honestly, the key is the assumptions. Just changing the parameters can yield a 500x increase. Isn't that just packaging subjective judgments with data? Is VanEck serious about analysis or just trying to trend on social media? I truly can't understand.

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GigaBrainAnon

· 21h ago

A 500x margin is truly incredible. Is VanEck playing a guessing game? Haha I've seen this kind of report many times; it's just laying out all possible scenarios, and anyone can pick what suits them and fit it into their narrative.

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MetaMasked

· 21h ago

A 500x difference, is this scenario analysis or gambling? It cracks me up. Oh wait, it just seems like using a broad range to cover all possibilities; anyway, you'll always guess one right. Change the assumptions, and the conclusion would be completely different. That's why I never fully trust institutional reports. $300 and $154k... I can find reasons to hype either one, it all depends on which assumptions you believe. Is VanEck doing research or just coming up with riddles?

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MEVictim

· 21h ago

A 500x difference, isn't this just hype rather than analysis? Anyway, I can't understand it. --- Another "rigorous research" just to get on trending searches, so typical. --- So which one should I believe? Or does no one really know? --- VanEck's approach is just gambling disguised with probabilities, a mere facelift. --- $300 and $154,000? Why not just say it could be negative, haha. --- Institutions love this kind of thing; the wider the range, the more professional it seems, but in reality, they haven't said anything.

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FreeRider

· 21h ago

Is a 500x margin really serious? It just feels like throwing out a wide range, and no matter what, it can match. VanEck's move will definitely generate buzz; anyway, if it goes up, people cheer, and if it drops, it can also be used to blame the bearish scenario. The problem is that if the assumptions change, the entire model would be turned upside down, so how much is the reference value of this report really worth? Rather than looking at institutional target prices, it's more practical to do your own fundamental research. Still the same old saying, no matter how beautiful the data is, it can't change the curse of "assumption is everything."

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LightningAllInHero

· 21h ago

A 500x difference, isn't this the investment philosophy of "I want it all," haha VanEck is really playing word games, leaving itself an escape route Anyway, if it goes up, I was right to be bullish; if it drops, I’ll just blame the "bearish scenario," perfect

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