As of January 10, 2026, BTC is approximately $90,600. Key conclusions: short-term high-level oscillation leaning towards correction, medium-term oscillation upward, long-term institutional-driven slow bull. The following are cycle-based judgments, key levels, core variables, and operational suggestions for your reference.

I. Quick Overview of Cycle Trends
Short-term (1-2 weeks): High-level oscillation + phase correction, support at 89,000-90,000, resistance at 94,500-95,000; ETF capital inflow slowing, RSI leaning strong, correction first then stabilization.
Medium-term (1-3 months): Oscillating upward, Q1 aiming to hit $100,000, focusing on support at 90,000 turning into a breakout point, then aiming for 98,000-100,000; if it breaks 88,000, a second bottoming is expected[__LINK_ICON].
Long-term (full year 2026): Institutional-driven, main targets at 120,000-170,000 USD, neutral expectation at 150,000 USD; volatility decreasing, resembling a "digital commodity" trend.
Key rhythm: oscillation and accumulation in the first half of the year, accelerating in the second half with rate cuts and clearer regulations.

II. Key Levels and Strategies
Stop-loss: Short-term at 88,700-89,000; break below triggers risk reduction.
Take-profit: First target at 94,500-95,000; second target at 98,000-100,000.
Add positions: Light positions on correction to 90,000-90,500; partial profit-taking on rebound to 94,000-94,500.
Position sizing: Total position ≤30%; leverage position ≤10%, each stop-loss ≤5% of principal.

III. Core Drivers and Risks
Core positives: Federal Reserve rate cut cycle providing liquidity; continuous ETF inflows; regulatory developments (e.g., the "Clarity Act") enhancing institutional allocation.
Core risks: Inflation rebound leading to rate hike expectations; tightening regulations; net ETF outflows; volatility transmission from US tech stocks.

IV. Operational Suggestions
Short-term: Sell high and buy low, avoid chasing rallies; buy on dips at 89,000-90,000, take partial profits at 94,500-95,000, enforce strict stop-loss.
Medium-term: Build positions on correction to 88,000-90,000, hold until near $100,000, then reduce positions to lock in profits[__LINK_ICON].
Leverage: Only for short-term trading, prioritize stop-loss; do not add on unrealized losses.