Tonight, the financial world needs to stay alert. A key Supreme Court ruling is about to be announced, and at the same time, non-farm payroll data will be released. The impact of these two events on the crypto market should not be underestimated.

Let's look at the data first: the market expects only a 26% probability that the ruling in favor of tariff policy proponents will succeed. This figure itself hints at market bias—there's a high likelihood that the ruling will lean toward constraining administrative authority.

Many will obsess over the outcome of the ruling, but that is a limited way of thinking. These two events essentially serve as a "macro check-up" for the crypto market. The key is understanding the transmission chain: decreased uncertainty in tariff policies → recovery of global trade sentiment → renewed attractiveness of risk assets. Once policy uncertainty dissipates, funds will gradually flow from safe-haven assets into high-risk sectors like crypto and stocks. Mainstream cryptocurrencies are expected to rebound, especially those high-quality projects that have been suppressed by long-term macro pessimism.

But the real "king bomb" is the non-farm payroll data. The new employment figures directly influence the Federal Reserve's policy stance, and the Fed's interest rate trajectory almost determines the liquidity environment for the crypto market. This is not an exaggeration—when interest rates are high, the appeal of crypto assets diminishes; when rate expectations fall, idle funds will flow back into these highly volatile assets.

Spot traders should be mentally prepared for potentially intense volatility tonight, but such volatility is precisely a good opportunity to discover value. The market is not risk; it’s an opportunity for mispriced assets.