#比特币价格趋势 Looking at Polymarket's forecast data, the probability of dropping below 80,000 in December is only 16%, which is a figure worth noting.

From the on-chain fund flow perspective, this low probability reflects the market consensus at the current price level—large holders have not shown obvious panic selling pressure. Compared to the 5% probability of dropping below 75,000, it can be inferred that the main support zone between 75,000 and 80,000 is relatively stable.

Conversely, the 5% probability of breaking above 100,000 is also low, indicating that upward expectations are highly priced in. This pattern of low forecasts at both ends suggests that the market has reached a strong consensus within the current price range.

The key now is to observe the scale of subsequent fund inflows—if whales continue to net inflow without large withdrawals, the current support level will be further strengthened. Conversely, large outflows combined with changes in contract positions are the real signals of a breakdown. From the data perspective, the current forecast probabilities are not yet sufficient to confirm the direction; we need to wait for more definitive on-chain movements to confirm.