#比特币价格趋势 Looking at this set of data on Polymarket, my thoughts drift back to those years. The 16% probability of dropping below 80,000, the 5% chance of falling below 75,000, and the 5% expectation of breaking above 100,000—this distribution essentially reflects the market's relative certainty about the current price, but it also exposes the limitations of prediction itself.

Remember the crazy end of 2017? At that time, no one dared to believe Bitcoin could reach $10,000, and the prediction models were just as overconfident. Then the crash of 2018 came suddenly and harshly. By 2021, with Bitcoin at $65,000, the market was replaying the same script—people using this year's certainty to deny the possibilities of next year.

Now, Bitcoin repeatedly fluctuates between $70,000 and $80,000. What does that tell us? It indicates we are at a critical psychological price point. Looking back, before every major wave, the probability distribution of market forecasts always seemed particularly "reasonable," especially convincing—until they were all proven wrong.

This 16% probability of dropping below $80,000 seems cautious, but in reality, it might precisely indicate that consensus is leaning upward or staying flat. And history has shown me that when market consensus is strongest, it’s often when risks are most deeply accumulated. It’s not that a fall is certain, but that the prediction probabilities themselves are an illusionary game—true risks are always hidden outside the consensus.

The most important thing to be wary of is never those 5% or 16%, but to ask yourself: why do I believe in this probability?