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How the current Bitcoin range reflects the previous pattern before breaking above $126K
Source: Yellow Original Title: How the current Bitcoin range reflects the pattern prior to breaking above $126K
Original Link: Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading between $80,000 and $95,000 for nearly 50 days since late November, reflecting a consolidation pattern similar to the one that preceded its October surge above $126,000.
The current price action, confined within a range, resembles a 52-day consolidation between $76,000 and $85,000 from late February to early April 2025.
That previous period ended with a breakout that propelled Bitcoin above $126,000.
What happened
Bitcoin entered its current consolidation on November 21, establishing a trading range of approximately 20% that has persisted until early January.
Traders describe this as a “time-based capitulation,” where prolonged sideways price action encourages impatient holders to close their positions.
The pattern has become more common as Bitcoin matures, without the extreme drops seen in previous market cycles.
On-chain data supports the consolidation thesis, with the Checkonchain “choppiness” indicator rising to about 53, indicating increasingly directionless price action.
Why it matters
Macroeconomic conditions are turning favorably for risk assets entering 2026.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate jumped from 2.7% to 5.4% for Q4 2025 on January 8, signaling stronger economic growth.
Former President Trump announced that he is ordering Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities.
Former Pimco CEO Mohamed El-Erian noted that this move indicates political pressure on the Federal Reserve could extend beyond rate cuts to asset purchases.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in 2026.