【The Fed's Contradictory Script: Cutting Rates by 150 Basis Points While Staunchly Supporting a Strong Economy】

Recently, the Fed's actions have become a bit hard to understand. They talk about large rate cuts (150 basis points, which is quite significant), then turn around and tell the market "the US economy remains quite resilient this year." This narrative, logically, seems somewhat contradictory.

If the economy is truly so strong, why the urgent need to cut rates?

Looking at the actual data makes it clear. The ADP employment indicator has already started to decline, and with the non-farm payroll report about to be released, once that number softens as well, the rate-cut cycle for the first half of the year will be essentially confirmed. This kind of "expectation gap"—where the narrative and the data don't align—is often the most interesting signal for the market.

Once global liquidity truly shifts, the subsequent asset re-pricing will be a major event. US stocks, Bitcoin, Ethereum—these assets are usually highly correlated and rarely move independently.

No need to listen to flowery words; just look at the signals:

• Rate cut expectations are heating up
• Economic data is softening gradually

What do these two signals combined really mean—risk or opportunity? Everyone's judgment may differ. But one thing is clear—the overall direction of the script is becoming increasingly obvious.