Willy Woo says data does not support the thesis of the end of Bitcoin's 4-year cycles

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Willy Woo says data does not support the thesis of the end of Bitcoin’s 4-year cycles Original Link: The well-known on-chain analyst Willy Woo states that the narrative that Bitcoin’s four-year cycles have come to an end is not supported by available data. According to him, the capital flows entering the network continue to follow patterns similar to those observed in previous cycles, contradicting the idea that the market has entered a new structural regime.

The statement was made after the publication of a chart showing long-term flows compared to Bitcoin’s price, an indicator used in the Bitcoin Vector Lite model developed by Woo. According to the analyst, the current behavior of these flows still aligns with the historical cyclical pattern.

Until the orange line [above chart] advances further into 2026 and begins to exhibit strange and non-cyclical behaviors, this narrative about the end of four-year cycles is not supported by the data.

Capital flows follow historical pattern

The chart released by the analyst indicates that, in previous cycles, long-term capital flows increased significantly during bull markets, reached a peak near price highs, and then slowed down afterward.

In the current cycle, the observed movement is similar, which, according to Woo, weakens the thesis that recent factors such as institutional investor entry and spot ETFs have eliminated Bitcoin’s cyclical dynamics.

What sustains the 4-year cycles

Asked by a follower about what fundamentals support the four-year cycles beyond them having occurred only twice, Woo highlighted two main factors.

The first is the internal supply shock caused by halving events, which reduce the issuance of new bitcoins by half approximately every four years. The second is the global liquidity cycle, also estimated to be around four years, which influences periods of higher or lower risk appetite in financial markets.

Additionally, the follower corrected: “There are three previous occurrences. The debate now is whether the fourth cycle is happening at this moment, which covers 100% of Bitcoin’s existence,” he said.