2026-01-10 04:30:45

#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 On January 9th, the US December non-farm payroll data was released, immediately triggering a chain reaction in the crypto market. Only 50,000 new jobs were added, well below the market expectation of 55,000-65,000, and combined with the downward revision of 76,000 jobs for the previous two months, it clearly indicates that the labor market is softening.

What does this mean? Traders quickly adjusted their expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy for the year—possibly cutting interest rates by about 50 basis points this year. Although a rate cut in January is unlikely, once this clear rate cut expectation path is established, it can continuously fuel bullish momentum.

**Bitcoin's performance clearly illustrates this.**

After the data was released, Bitcoin repeatedly tested the $90,000 level. The typical scenario was "rising sharply then pulling back—range consolidation"—on January 8th, it even briefly broke through $91,000, then rebounded to around $90,500 under the support of rate cut expectations, with a 24-hour decline of 0.62%. In other words, Bitcoin's current movement is torn between two forces: one driven by safe-haven demand due to poor economic outlook, and the other by bullish anticipation as rate cuts approach.

From an institutional perspective, after the liquidation wave at the end of last year, funds are reallocating. Although ETF inflows have slowed, structural demand remains. Once the Federal Reserve truly begins a rate cut cycle, Bitcoin breaking through the $95,000 resistance could gain stronger momentum, with a target of $100,000.

But a reminder: the market is still in a phase of "high-level oscillation plus staged corrections." Macro data can fluctuate at any time, so don’t underestimate the risk of volatility. If you’re considering allocation, it’s best to buy on dips in stages, and leverage positions should be carefully controlled.

BTC0,61%

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AlwaysMissingTops

· 10h ago

The expectation of interest rate cuts, to put it nicely, is a savior for the bulls; to put it bluntly, it's a gamble on the central bank. It's too risky. --- Fluctuating around 90,000, if it were me, I would have cut losses long ago. I can't hold onto this. --- Weak non-farm payroll data indeed provided some room, but if it really breaks 100,000, it still depends on the Fed's stance. It might just be a false alarm. --- Are institutions reallocating? Then should retail investors operate in the opposite way? What a thought process. --- High-level oscillations are just shakeouts, trying to trick me into entering in batches again, old tricks. --- A 50 basis point rate cut sounds great, but before it actually happens, BTC still needs to be shaken further. Don't be too optimistic. --- ETF funds aren't that strong anymore, so what's the point of hyping it? Doesn't that mean there's no heat anymore? --- Buying on dips is a good strategy, but who knows where the bottom of the pullback really is? It's a gambler's mentality.

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FundingMartyr

· 01-11 00:40

The expectation of interest rate cuts makes the market feel like a roller coaster. You really need to buy in batches, and leverage is not something you can play with.

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TopBuyerForever

· 01-10 04:59

The expectation of interest rate cuts has emerged, but I still feel this rebound is uncertain... After all, I was trapped in my positions bought at 91,000. It sounds like there's a chance it could drop to 100,000, but I'm worried it might just be paper wealth again if macro data reverses once more. Gradually entering the market is indeed wise, so I don't end up chasing highs like I did... Don't even touch leverage; I've learned my painful lesson.

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defi_detective

· 01-10 04:57

As expectations of interest rate cuts rise, cryptocurrencies start to swing back and forth. This wave has truly been manipulated by macroeconomic data, playing with us like pawns. Repeatedly touching 90,000 yuan feels like being caught in a high-level oscillation, a harvesting machine for retail traders. Data like non-farm payrolls always open up traders' minds. A 50bp rate cut sounds good, but it still feels too far away. Let's wait until a real rate cut happens. Currently, chasing the highs is just a gambler's mentality. Can 100,000 really be broken? Honestly, it's a bit uncertain. Let's see this week's trend before deciding whether to add to the position. Economic slowdown actually boosts safe-haven demand. You need to translate this logic to understand it. Institutions quietly build positions after clearing, while retail investors are still buying at high levels. This is the truth of the market. Leverage really shouldn't be touched. One data release can cause a liquidation, I've seen too many people go through this. The 95,000 mark is quite critical. Only after breaking through it will there be a chance to see 100,000. It's still early now. Once the interest rate cut cycle begins, the bulls' opportunity truly arrives, but no one can predict the timing right now.

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ShadowStaker

· 01-10 04:56

ngl, this 50bp cut narrative is pretty fragile... labor market softening doesn't automatically mean dovish pivot, fed's still data dependent af. btc bouncing between hope and macro headwinds is exactly the kind of sideways nonsense that liquidates overlevered retail.

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MetaNeighbor

· 01-10 04:54

Expectations of interest rate cuts have caused Bitcoin to start hesitating --- It’s bouncing around 90,000 again and again; this market is just betting on the Federal Reserve --- Don’t be fooled by expectations of rate cuts; it’s still early to hit 100,000 --- It seems we still have to wait for official signals before taking action; those who bought at high levels are crying --- Institutions are reallocating; as retail investors, we can only watch... It’s better not to play with leverage in this wave --- Falling back after breaking 91,000; when will it truly break through? --- Economic slowdown leads to rate cuts; the crypto circle is loving this logic --- It’s very right to say to enter in batches; we should have learned to do that long ago --- 95,000 is the real watershed; let’s talk about hitting 100,000 when we get there

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