#比特币价格预测 Seeing Pompliano's viewpoint, I have to admit it's quite interesting. I hadn't paid much attention to the angle of volatility compression before—indeed, if BTC can still experience a 70-80% crash in a low-volatility environment, that's truly frightening.

This logic has practical guiding significance for copy trading strategies. If in Q1 next year we really avoid extreme declines, what does that mean? Aggressive risk-tolerant traders might be more willing to leverage up, while conservatives continue to adopt a steady approach. Recently, I've been observing a few high-level traders with moderate risk preferences, and their position management is indeed loosening—this is no coincidence.

But there's a trap to watch out for: Pompliano said "the probability of a significant decline is low," which does not mean zero. The fact that BTC has increased 100% in two years or 300% in three years is solid, but precisely because of such gains, any correction could be severe. A strategy follower I know nearly got liquidated last month because he underestimated a quick 20% drop and didn't adjust his position weights in time.

So the key point remains: low volatility ≠ safety. It might actually be accumulation before a calm period. When choosing whom to copy, don't just look at their historical return curves; pay attention to how they respond to volatility changes. Those who can flexibly adjust their risk exposure are the ones I truly want to follow.