📉**Bitcoin Crazy Dog Observation**

Regarding BTC market trends, I still hold a somewhat bearish stance.

From a technical perspective, this rebound is essentially a pullback after a false breakout, not the start of a new trend. The price rebounded from around 80,000 to about 94,000, which sounds impressive, but the key issue is—it's never broken above the medium-term key moving average, MA99, which remains a resistance. Each time it attempts to surge, the volume can't keep up; on the other hand, declines are swift and decisive. What does this indicate? Funds at high levels are simply not willing to add more positions.

Further data confirms this judgment. Although the funding rate is generally positive, suggesting some bullish sentiment, the extent isn't extreme—it's a situation where "some want to bottom fish but are hesitant to go all-in." The long-short ratio varies across platforms; there are more long positions, but active trading volume isn't strong. This structure is prone to repeated tug-of-war, draining retail traders' confidence.

More importantly, both open interest and trading volume are shrinking. This indicates leverage enthusiasm is cooling down, and the market is no longer euphoric. But there's a problem—this hasn't reversed the overall trend. Usually, in such environments, the market either continues to grind sideways or suddenly chooses a direction at a critical point. Considering the current larger-scale structure, I lean toward the latter.

Looking at capital flows, there are signs of short-term support, but medium-term main funds are still net outflowing. The rhythm is clear: first give you some hope → let you fluctuate sideways for a while → then clear out those who haven't exited.

**My conclusion is**: a small phase of false breakout and oscillation can't be ruled out, such as repeated pulls around 90,000, but as long as the fundamental structure remains unchanged, there is still room below. The realistic target zone is around 78,000. The current main strategy is to look for suitable entry points to short.