RIVER has completed a typical pump-and-dump cycle. Starting from the daily high of 23.87, the single-sided decline has taken shape, with a 24-hour drop of over 24%. Behind this is the main force executing a distribution of high-position chips followed by a bearish attack.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the MACD has been stuck in the negative zone. Although the bearish histogram has shrunk somewhat, there are no clear signs of a reversal yet. This weak consolidation state is not a signal for the bulls to reverse, but merely a relay stage where the big players continue to distribute chips.

Contract data further illustrates the issue. Observing long and short positions, the proportion of shorts has always suppressed the longs. Although the total open interest has slightly increased, the total value of open interest has actually declined, indicating that most of the new positions are retail investors taking low positions, while the main force's selling volume rapidly increases during each small rebound—typical of a trap to lure in buyers before dumping.

Looking ahead, RIVER is likely to form a short-term sideways movement in the range of $11.5-$12. If a rebound occurs to $13-$14, the trading volume will definitely not match the level seen during the previous rally, which is a trap set by the big players to dump at higher levels. Once the rebound ends, the price will continue to probe below the support level of $10, making it difficult for the bulls to find effective opportunities for a counterattack throughout the process.