Many people are following the hype around WAL in the Sui ecosystem; it seems quite popular. But after reviewing the macro cycle of BTC and comparing it with WAL's on-chain data, honestly, I feel a bit scared.

BTC is currently climbing with oxygen deficiency, while WAL looks like it's dancing on the edge of a cliff.

Currently, WAL is consolidating around $0.14-0.15, and the trend looks quite solid, even energetic. But don't be fooled by surface appearances.

**The Truth Behind the False Prosperity**

The current hype is largely sustained by incentives from a major exchange, which ended on February 6th. This kind of market condition is like a "stepwise shrinking"—the seemingly active trading volume is actually artificial breathing by the exchange. Once the promotion ends, retail buy orders will immediately cool off, and the market will enter a very weak liquidity vacuum.

**The Danger Window on March 27**

Through on-chain tracking and token model analysis, I identified an extremely dangerous date: March 27, 2026.

On this day, the 12-month lock-up period for early Walrus investors will officially end, releasing a total of 350 million tokens (7% of the total supply). Even more terrifying is that this release point precisely coincides with my predicted macro turning point for BTC. When the market shakes below $80,000 due to blood loss, WAL will face a double blow: a systemic market retreat plus institutional sell-offs.

Some whale addresses have already begun preemptive positioning with exchanges.

**Three-Stage Trend Prediction**

1. **Inducing rally phase (from now to early February):** Using the residual momentum from the promotion to push prices higher, possibly testing $0.18-0.20, but this is mainly to give big players room to sell.

2. **Gradual decline phase (mid-February to mid-March):** Liquidity returns to reality, and prices slowly decline.

3. **Accelerated crash point (late March to April):** Chip release begins, coinciding with a market turning point.

If the $80,000 support is broken, WAL is very likely to pierce the psychological support at $0.10 and find a real hard floor around $0.08-0.09.

WAL is a good infrastructure project, but a good project doesn't necessarily mean it's a good buy right now.