Since the "blood loss cycle" of BTC and the March turning point window have been seen through, then the judgment on the Sui ecosystem star project Walrus (WAL) can no longer rely solely on fundamentals. We must directly delve into the hard bones of chip game theory and cycle nodes.

I've been analyzing this storage benchmark within the Sui ecosystem recently. Honestly, WAL's current situation feels very strange: its fundamentals are experiencing a "warm spring," but the chip side is trembling in a "cold winter."

**Current Situation: Prosperity Driven by Virtual Fire**

In January 2026, WAL fluctuated around $0.14-0.15. On the surface, a creative event by a major exchange (from January 6 to February 6) is driving crazy traffic to it, and the community is extremely enthusiastic. But if you look closely at the trading volume data, you'll find problems:

Like BTC, WAL's trading volume during this rebound is actually shrinking. The trading volume inflated by exchange activities is, frankly, "virtual fire." Once the February event ends, liquidity will be immediately drained.

Looking at the fundamentals, the Sui mainnet is about to celebrate its anniversary, and Walrus has indeed secured cooperation with several top projects in AI storage and privacy data fields. But these demands need some time to truly translate into WAL's destruction and deflation effects. This is a long-term water that cannot quench the immediate thirst—that's the current situation.

**Time Window is the Killer**

This is the most critical point—the upcoming window from February to March is like a countdown for WAL.