#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 $CLO

CLO has dropped from the high of 0.856 down to 0.61. The reason I am bullish is very simple— that high point seemed too abrupt. Since it has already broken above 0.8, surpassing the previous top was expected. Regarding the resistance level at 0.926, my orders are mainly to prevent being caught in a trap. In fact, the probability distribution of the decline is as follows: 40% of the drop is a straight plunge, 30% involves a pullback to 0.841 before continuing to weaken. However, the chance of breaking below 0.84 is actually higher.

Currently, if CLO can hold the 0.6 level, it indicates that a short-term sideways consolidation is likely. There is a dividing line here—if the sideways movement lasts longer, the probability of further decline increases; otherwise, an upward move will be triggered. Whether it can reach a new high again depends on the market's specific performance and trend direction.

My view is that the probability of CLO rising back to 0.65 is about 65%. Of course, this is all based on current technical analysis. The key going forward is whether it can effectively break through the key resistance and how active the market participation is.