2026-01-10 05:30:41

Recently, the US non-farm payroll data was released below expectations, leading to increased market volatility. This made me think of an interesting topic—the long-term value logic of BTC.

From a historical perspective, BTC has increased by 90,000 times since its inception. This number sounds crazy, but comparing it to traditional assets helps understand its reasonableness. Gold has only increased by 4,500 times from its initial value, while BTC's growth is 20 times that of gold.

The key question is: Is BTC really overvalued? Or is it just gradually proving its store of value status? If we reverse engineer using the logic of gold, when gold returns to its initial value benchmark, based on this 20x difference, BTC seems to need an adjustment period to absorb this premium. Ultimately, the market may need a release valve to return to rationality.

The current correction might be just this process. Instead of panicking, it's better to understand what the market is doing.

BTC0,13%

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Rekt_Recovery

· 01-10 06:50

yo honestly the 20x vs gold comparison hits different when you're still nursing losses from the last leverage cycle lol. ngl this "adjustment period" copium tastes familiar... been there, bought the merch, got liquidated wearing it. but like, the logic checks out? maybe? or maybe i'm just broken from too many rug pulls idk

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MevShadowranger

· 01-10 05:59

Non-farm data is bad, but that's actually good... it gives us a good opportunity to buy the dip. Honestly, I have to counter the 90,000x comparison to gold; the historical span can't be compared at all. Whether it's overestimated or underestimated depends on the holding period. I only know that predictions based on the gold logic are concerning in accuracy. Adjustment? That's just a shakeout... true believers now aren't afraid, it all depends on who can hold through to the next cycle. There is definitely a bubble, but Bitcoin has long surpassed just being a store of value... don't overcomplicate it. What is the market doing? Buying the dip. The last time it dropped this much was last year, now a quick rebound could be a multiple.

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GhostWalletSleuth

· 01-10 05:46

This 20x difference feels a bit overfitted; the scarcity logic of gold and BTC is really not the same. Wait, adjustment period ≈ pressure release? Then which year should we adjust to? Using historical gains as an argument? I think that's just survivor bias. Non-farm payrolls below expectations? That's the real signal for on-chain data; these macro data points have already been priced in long ago. We've talked a lot about BTC as a store of value, but the real question is... what can it replace?

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Rugpull幸存者

· 01-10 05:34

90,000x vs 4,500x, these numbers are indeed impressive, but gold has also gone through many years of accumulation. Can't compare. That said, using gold logic to back-calculate BTC's premium is a pretty new perspective... but will the market really be that rational? I can't help but want to laugh. It's just an adjustment period, anyway. I've been through enough of these already.

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BearMarketSurvivor

· 01-10 05:31

90,000x vs 4,500x, what does this gap indicate... Gold has been so stable, can BTC still hold? Speaking of non-farm payrolls, they caused a riot as soon as they were released, it's hilarious. This wave of adjustment is actually just a shakeout, don't be scared. Premium digestion period... sounds like more chopping of leeks. It should have fallen earlier, staying calm is beneficial for us. Bitcoin's story can indeed be exaggerated, but this logic is a bit forced. Bad non-farm data, but could it be an opportunity? I think so. This is market recovery, the panic is others', but buying the dip is ours. A 20x difference... BTC still has strong momentum. The adjustment is good; too many bagholders should wake up. Store of value? We need to survive this wave of halving first.

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