The US December non-farm payroll data just came out, and the market was stunned.

Only 50,000 new jobs were added, more than 30% below the expected 65,000. The unemployment rate is at 4.4%, which looks lower than the expected 4.5%, but the combination of these data points actually signals a dangerous trend—the job creation capacity is in decline. The official figures for November and December were also revised downward by 76,000, indicating that the previously reported numbers were inflated. The employment growth for the entire 2025 year has hit its lowest since 2020, which is a clear slowdown signal.

The most immediate impact is on the rate cut expectations. Previously, the market bet that the Federal Reserve would cut rates in January. Now? The CME "FedWatch" tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January has plummeted from previous expectations to just 5%, while the chance of holding rates steady has surged to 95%. In other words, a rate cut is basically off the table. The market is now betting that the first rate cut might not happen until around mid-2026, with only two rate cuts expected for the entire year.

Interestingly, the Federal Reserve actually places more importance on the unemployment rate. Currently, the unemployment rate is indeed low, and wages are still rising, which supports their decision to "hold steady" in January. But with such weak employment growth, it could drag down consumer spending in the long run, and since consumer spending is the engine of the US economy—so is the labor market really at a turning point? That remains uncertain.

On the US stock market side, these concerns seem to be less influential. The three major indices continued to hit new all-time highs overnight, with tech and chip stocks generally rising. The most remarkable gains were in nuclear power stocks, with companies like Vistra surging over 10%, because Meta recently signed a huge nuclear energy supply agreement, locking in long-term power for AI data centers. The logic of capital is clear: delayed rate cuts mean a prolonged high-interest-rate environment, but this also means stronger long-term demand for tech and AI industries, and scarce resources in the supply chain will be more sought after.