#以太坊大户持仓变化 Funding rates suddenly reversed, this prediction has been validated again

On-chain data never lies. I've been tracking exchange fund flows for several days, and they align with a certain data platform's curve in an almost eerie way.

Let me cut to the conclusion: An emotional turning point has arrived, but don't get too excited yet. The panic selling of BTC and ETH has basically been cleaned out, and what follows will be repeated oscillations and gradual bottoming. As for those altcoins? The timing isn't right yet, we should hold our ammunition.

Why are mainstream coins no longer looking bearish? Look at the data—the funding rate has returned to neutral levels. It might not sound like much, but what does this indicate? That wave of frenzied shorting and bearish betting capital has subsided. Combined with the on-chain reality: whale addresses have been accumulating steadily, exchange coin reserves haven't increased and are actually showing slight outflows. What does this mean—major capital isn't dumping, but likely taking the bottom. The panic-selling phase has hit the brakes for now.

Why am I still bearish on altcoins no matter what? The answer is in the charts—small coin funding rates are still negative, and the market is just that ruthless. Capital is flowing from risk assets back to core assets. When the market outlook is unclear, funds prioritize self-preservation and rotate back to BTC and ETH, those crash-resistant blue chips. Altcoins fell too hard in the previous phase; rebuilding confidence takes time. Plus, many projects fundamentally can't support their prices. Rush in now? Nine times out of ten you're catching a falling knife.

What's the rhythm going forward? My personal view:

Mainstream coins: Will likely enter a channel of repeated oscillations, not a sudden V-shaped reversal. Bulls still need time to accumulate momentum, with plenty of locked-in positions overhead. But the bottom region is becoming gradually clearer—being bearish no matter what is getting ridiculous now. The key is whether it can hold firm at important support levels.

Altcoins: Will continue to show divergence; individual coins with main force operations or major catalysts might move first, but there won't be sector-wide momentum yet. Only when mainstream coins completely stabilize will capital slowly overflow looking for altcoin opportunities. What's most valuable right now is patience.