Recently, the market has been really tough. The market has been stuck in a range for several days without any significant breakout, repeatedly oscillating at this level. Overall market liquidity feels almost nonexistent, with no hope for bullish momentum and no courage to short aggressively. The 500-point fluctuations up and down have become the norm, and even the discussions in chat groups have quieted down.

A few days ago, many were still bullish, but without locking in profits, they were pushed back to the starting point. Now some are calling for a drop to 86,000, which is really disheartening.

However, from a macro perspective, there are some positive signals. The Federal Reserve continues to conduct US debt repurchases and QE operations. Although the probability of interest rate cuts in the short term is low, the policy direction remains supportive of liquidity. Additionally, the trade surplus effect brought by tariff policies is becoming evident; the trade deficit has fallen to a historic low of $28.6 billion, and the US government still has policy tools at its disposal. The AI industry chain is expected to perform well into 2026, which supports the long-term outlook for the tech ecosystem and the crypto market.

That said, the crypto space has indeed entered a relatively sluggish phase. It’s been hard lately to find strong news that could significantly push BTC higher. The analyses that previously promoted BTC to 180,000 and ETH to 4,000 are now silent.

From a technical perspective, a few key points:

On the daily chart, BTC is oscillating around the critical support level, with MACD forming a death cross, indicating a short-term pullback is needed. But the key is that major players haven’t exited en masse; signs of capital support are still present, which also offers a rebound opportunity. The main support is around 89,000.

On the 1-hour chart, it’s recommended to position long trades around 90,000. If a significant breakdown occurs, consider adding to longs at 89,000, with a stop-loss at 88,000. The short-term target is around 92,000.

The 3-day chart shows a relatively strong pattern, with MACD forming a golden cross, and candlestick structures indicating some capital support, providing a basis for a rebound. However, it’s important to note that the larger cycle trend remains downward, so when approaching the key resistance at around 95,000, caution is needed against strong short-term shorting.

Overall, we are in a trapped situation—no clear direction, but a short-term rebound rhythm still exists. The key is to manage risk carefully and adapt flexibly to price fluctuations within this range.