Recently, I came across an analysis report indicating that the Federal Reserve's January meeting essentially signaled no action. The rate cut might not happen until June.

The current US employment data is quite interesting—non-farm payrolls are quite volatile, but the overall trend is somewhat weak, although the unemployment rate has slightly improved. This gives the Fed ample reason to continue observing without rushing to make a decision.

Another major factor is the potential announcement by the Supreme Court that IEEEA tariffs are unconstitutional. If confirmed, this would be a short-term positive for US stocks and the dollar, and market confidence could improve. On-chain data also supports this—traders are generally betting that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady, which in turn puts some pressure on US Treasuries.

However, US stocks are performing quite well. The AI industry continues to warm up, along with rebounds in the consumer and industrial sectors. These factors collectively pushed the stock market higher. So, the current situation is: US Treasuries face pressure, but US stocks and the dollar are supported by improved policy expectations. The key going forward will still be the Fed's tone and the actual economic data.