#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 Last night, the non-farm payroll data was released, and the results were even weaker than market expectations.

**The Federal Reserve is truly in a "hard to read" state right now**

The awkwardness of this report lies in its contradictory data. On one hand, the number of new jobs added is far below expectations, indicating that companies are clearly less willing to hire; on the other hand, the unemployment rate has actually decreased, which somewhat eases some pressure on the Federal Reserve. The US labor market is now caught in a strange cycle — no one dares to take big actions, resulting in a stalemate of "low hiring and low layoffs."

Internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve are even greater. One faction advocates for multiple rate cuts this year to stimulate the economy, while another insists on maintaining the current stance or even continuing high interest rates. The likely outcome is — a high probability of "holding steady" this month, continuing to observe.

**What does this mean for the crypto market?**

In the short term, the market will take a breather. Since the expectation that the Federal Reserve will "stay put" has been confirmed, intense market fluctuations may temporarily slow down. The recent decline is actually the market digesting this "no immediate risk" expectation. However, it’s important to note that stable expectations ≠ the market will surge; these are two different things.

The medium-term outlook will be more complex. Both bullish and bearish sides in the current market have their reasons, and any new economic data could become the last straw that breaks the camel’s back, triggering intense emotional swings.

The real key variable is — the new Federal Reserve Chair. Powell will step down in May, and the policy inclination of the new chair (dovish or hawkish) will directly determine the liquidity in the second half of the year, which is a decisive factor affecting the entire market trend.

**Practical response strategies**

Don’t chase high blindly. The current market is not in the main upward wave of a bull market; don’t mistake temporary stabilization for an imminent big rally.

Positioning is crucial. In a volatile market, full positions can easily lead to psychological breakdowns. Keep some cash reserves so you can buy the dip when prices fall.

Monitor upcoming data trends closely. Monthly non-farm payroll reports and inflation indicators will directly impact market sentiment. Additionally, keep an eye on policy decisions related to US tariffs, as such policy changes often trigger significant risk sentiment swings in the market.

Currently, the crypto market presents both risks and opportunities; choosing the right strategy and direction is very important.

$ETH