#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 BTC is stuck at this critical resistance level, which has actually been in my expectations for a while. The range from 0.65 to 0.75 represents about 10% of the chips being successfully unlocked. Currently, market sentiment is generally cautious, and some selling pressure is quite normal.

Over the past month, I have been tracking data such as chip distribution, whale movements, long-term holder selling trends, contract premiums, and options funding. The results show that panic sentiment is indeed gradually easing, but there is one issue that makes me a bit uneasy—the change in BTC balances on exchanges.

From December 10 to 29 last year, the on-exchange BTC balance kept increasing. Based on past experience, whenever the exchange BTC balance rises, the BTC price tends to weaken, which is an important signal of selling pressure on the exchange. Fortunately, after January, the balance started to decline, and BTC also rebounded slightly. But whether it can break through this resistance depends mainly on whether the buying volume is strong enough to absorb the selling pressure on the exchange—that is, how strong the demand is to move coins out of the exchange. This is not the only factor, but definitely the most critical one.

Let’s also look at the movements of large funds. For single transfers of a million dollars or more, large traders between 1 million and 10 million USD are marked in yellow, while whales exceeding 10 million USD are marked in red. In mid-April last year, large funds collectively transferred coins out, causing BTC to jump from 85,000 to 95,000. At that time, large traders of the million-dollar level were the main force. Now, large funds are also transferring coins out, but the scale is significantly smaller than last year. So my judgment is that the buying power at the moment is not strong enough to replicate last year’s rapid reversal rally. It’s more likely to see a two-step retreat, slowly repairing market sentiment, which requires more time to accumulate and external stimuli to support it.