An unprecedented capital scramble is unfolding in the tech industry.

By 2026, the global top five cloud service providers' capital expenditure is expected to surpass $602 billion, nearly doubling compared to 2024. Three-quarters of this will be directly invested in AI infrastructure, as these giants' demand for computing power has reached a frenzy level.

The truth behind the numbers is even more striking: the capital intensity of leading companies like Microsoft and Oracle has soared to 45-57% of revenue, far exceeding the traditional tech company's usual 10-15%. What does this mean? It means that almost all the profits are being reinvested into infrastructure.

To plug this money-burning hole, the giants are starting to cut back. Stock buybacks have been significantly reduced—down 35% from 2022 to 2023—and signs of a real recovery by 2026 remain elusive. With cash flow tightening, they are turning to the debt market, with borrowing reaching $108 billion in 2025.

This is a gamble. The bet is that the early advantage in AI infrastructure will bear fruit after 2027, transforming into explosive profits. But the problem is, devices like GPUs have a technological lifecycle of only 2 to 3 years. As technology advances, these sky-high assets could instantly depreciate. It's like planting a time bomb on the balance sheet—no one knows when it will explode.