#NonfarmPayrollsComing

📊 January 2026 Non-Farm Payroll Report: Why Bitcoin Breakthrough Has Been Delayed (Not Over Yet)

The first non-farm payroll report (NFP) for 2026 was released on Friday, January 9th, sending clear signals to the Federal Reserve and the crypto markets.

Although the overall numbers were slightly below expectations, the underlying details shifted the narrative toward a “higher, longer” interest rate environment—temporarily postponing Bitcoin’s breakout.

1️⃣ Numbers: A “slight deviation” reversal

Key Data Points

Actual employment change: +50K

(Expected: +60K | Previous: +56K, revised downward)

Unemployment rate: 4.4%

(Expected: 4.5%)

Average hourly earnings (AHE): +0.3% MoM

(Slightly above expectations)

Conclusion:

Despite employment growth being slightly below expectations, the decline in unemployment and steady wage growth indicate a stabilizing labor market rather than deterioration. This removes the urgency for aggressive rate cuts.

2️⃣ Federal Funds Rate Cut Expectations: “Pause is a done deal”

This report effectively dampened expectations of rate cuts at the FOMC meeting from January 27–29.

FedWatch probability:

Probability of rate cut dropped from about 11% to around 5%.

Market interpretation:

With no urgent labor market issues and no inflation risks related to tariffs expected early 2026, the Fed has little incentive to cut rates quickly. The policy pause has now become the baseline expectation.

3️⃣ Bitcoin (BTC) Price Movement: Tug of War

Bitcoin remains in a high-risk consolidation zone.

Non-farm data failed to provide the dovish catalyst needed by bears to push BTC back to its (all-time high).

Key Levels

Immediate support: $90,000 – $90,500

Holding steady for now, but momentum is waning.

Resistance levels: $94,700 – $95,000

Repeated rejections since December.

Downside risks:

Breaking below $90K will expose the next major demand zone at $126K – $86K.

Outlook:

Without clear macro positives (such as $90K rate cuts or cooling inflation$84K ), Bitcoin may continue to fluctuate within the range.

📋 Market Reaction Summary

US Dollar Index (DXY):

Slightly up, strong trend, with the decline in unemployment supporting the Fed’s hawkish stance.

10-Year Treasury Yield:

Rising to about 4.18%, reflecting diminished expectations for short-term rate cuts.

Bitcoin (BTC):

Consolidating in a mildly soft environment, with reduced liquidity increasing short-term risk aversion.

🧠 Final Insights

This non-farm payroll report failed to determine the trend—it only delayed the breakout.

Market focus now shifts to:

The U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on tariffs (expected today)

Next week’s CPI (inflation data

⚠️ If inflation remains high and the labor market stays stable, Bitcoin could experience a deeper correction before the next big rally.