#预测市场 Lighter's phone information has been released, with a 91% probability of TGE before the end of the year. This is worth paying close attention to.

After carefully reviewing the details, a few points are worth highlighting:

**First round 25% release + 25% reserved allocation framework**—This indicates that the team is quite cautious about long-term incentives and won't dump all at once. The three-year vesting period also constrains investors, making liquidity pressure relatively manageable from this perspective.

**Transaction fee returns to the ecosystem and buybacks, rather than dividends**—This setup actually tests the protocol's growth capability. The token's value support depends on genuine product and ecosystem operations, not financial distributions. In other words, profitability will depend on Lighter's future trading volume and market position, which are more solid indicators.

**Withdrawal mechanism lock-in design**—Even if CEXs push hard, tokens can't be withdrawn, which is a pretty tough anti-dumping measure. But it also means initial liquidity might be tight, and quick reactions and timing judgment will be crucial.

**Prediction market route**—The information mentions aiming to launch within next year, which is a long-term point of interest. If it materializes, combined with high-frequency trading infrastructure, this area indeed has potential.

Overall, the team has done a lot of homework, especially regarding compliance and long-term incentive design. But the core risk remains whether the tokens can truly generate value after TGE. This isn't a prediction market; it's real-world application—seeing if the product can sustain hype, and whether the ecosystem can truly stay active. Wait until the specific TGE rules are announced before making allocation decisions, and don't blindly increase positions just because of hype.