XRP’S FIRST SELL WAVE OF 2026: A 14% DIP OR A $390 MILLION WHALE TRAP?

The XRP market has encountered its first major turbulence of 2026, as a sharp 14% correction from the January 6 peak sent prices reeling. However, beneath the surface of this sudden “sell wave,” a fascinating battle of conviction is taking place. While short-term traders are locking in profits and driving down the price, XRP’s largest “whales” and long-term holders have responded by aggressively absorbing the supply. With nearly $390 million in new whale accumulation recorded during the dip, the market is currently at a stalemate between retail profit-taking and institutional-grade accumulation a dynamic that will decide whether XRP consolidates or plunges toward its critical $1.97 support. I. The 14% Pullback: Weakened Volume Meets Rising Prices The recent 14% drop in XRP’s price was preceded by a classic technical warning sign: a bearish divergence between price and On-Balance Volume (OBV). From late December through early January, while the price was grinding higher, the OBV was trending lower, indicating that the rally lacked true buying conviction and was increasingly vulnerable to a sell-off. This “first sell wave” of the year appears to be a natural cleansing of over-leveraged long positions and short-term profit-booking. Despite the double-digit drop, XRP remains up 11% on a weekly basis, suggesting that the broader bullish trend is being tested but not yet broken. II. The $390 Million Whale Wall: Strong Hands Step In What distinguishes this correction from a full-scale collapse is the decisive action of XRP “whales.” On-chain data from Santiment and Glassnode reveals that wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion XRP have increased their combined balance by a staggering 180 million XRP since January 6 a buy-in worth approximately $390 million. Simultaneously, long-term conviction holders have increased their positions by 17% during the price decline. This “smart money” absorption provides a massive cushion against further downside, signaling that the largest market participants view the $2.00–$2.10 range as a value-buying opportunity rather than a reason to panic. III. The Path Forward: $2.15 Resistance and $1.97 Support As XRP enters a stabilization phase, two key price levels are defining the immediate risk-reward landscape. On the upside, the first major hurdle is a supply cluster at $2.15, followed by the more critical $2.41 level the point where the current sell-off originated. A daily close above $2.41 would signal that the bulls have regained control and could pave the way for a run toward $2.69. Conversely, the “line in the sand” for bulls is $1.97. As long as XRP holds above this level, the structural integrity of the rally remains intact. A breach of $1.97, however, would suggest that even the $390 million whale wall is not enough to stem the tide of bearish sentiment. IV. Essential Financial Disclaimer This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Technical indicators like On-Balance Volume (OBV) and on-chain metrics such as Hodler Net Position Change are probabilistic and do not guarantee future price movement. The $390 million whale accumulation and specific support/resistance levels are based on current data and are subject to change without notice. XRP is a highly volatile asset; always conduct your own exhaustive research (DYOR) and consult with a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions in the digital asset market.

Are you buying the 14% dip along with the whales, or do you think $1.97 is the more likely destination?