Bitcoin: from $126,000 to a crash — market analysis between hope and skepticism

October brought contrasting developments to the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin reached a record high of $126,000 on October 6, surpassing its August peak. However, following this triumph, a sharp correction occurred — within a week, the price dropped by more than $23,000, leaving traders and investors in a state of uncertainty.

Market Divided: Hope Versus Caution

The question currently occupying the crypto community is: has the current bull cycle ended, or is this just a temporary correction before a new surge?

Famous analyst PlanB conducted a poll within the community, and the results showed optimism. Out of 36,089 votes, 68% of supporters believe that Bitcoin still has growth potential in the current cycle. They consider the drop below $126,000 a natural correction rather than a sign of a bear market.

However, a parallel poll conducted by the same PlanB ( creator of the Stock-to-Flow model ) revealed a different picture. Among 30,833 participants, nearly 63% predicted a possible drop in Bitcoin below $100,000. This difference in sentiment reflects deep market uncertainty.

Liquidity as the Main Price Driver

Analysts increasingly point out that Bitcoin’s price movements are determined less by organic demand and more by liquidity flows. Crypto expert Adlegoff84 stated in his comment that Bitcoin’s “price dance” no longer reflects natural demand but serves as a tool for liquidity management within institutional operations.

According to him, the modern market functions as a complex coordinated mechanism of:

• Spot and futures ETFs
• Custodial products of major players
• Perpetual contracts
• Central banks’ monetary policies

This means that a significant part of the volatility results from portfolio rebalancing by large capital rather than fundamental market shifts.

Liquidity Rotation as a Bullish Signal

PlanB agreed with this view, emphasizing the importance of monitoring institutional investors’ portfolio rebalancing. He noted that current liquidity rotations, contrary to pessimistic forecasts, indicate the market is preparing for a new growth phase.

This perspective reverses the traditional interpretation of corrections. Instead of viewing the decline as the end of a cycle, supporters see it as a repositioning of major players.

Current Context: Between $91.84K and Uncertainty

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $91.84K with a daily increase of +1.21%. The all-time high remains at $126.08K — a constant reminder of the market’s potential and simultaneously a psychological challenge for bulls.

Conclusion: An Intermission Instead of a Finale

The history of the crypto market confirms a simple truth — “the end” in the context of Bitcoin almost never means a final resolution. More often, it’s a pause, a preparation for the next act.

If we believe in liquidity flow analysis, the current decline is not a sign of cycle completion but a reorganization of capital. The market is entering a new phase where profitable positions are taken off and then reopened at more optimal levels.

For investors remaining in positions, this means one thing: a price crash may just be a breather before the next upward wave.