US December CPI data arrives tonight, potentially triggering a new wave of market movement in the cryptocurrency space

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the December 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report at 21:30 Beijing time on January 13 (Tuesday).

The market widely expects the overall CPI to increase by 0.3% month-over-month, remaining at 2.7% year-over-year; core CPI (excluding food and energy) is also expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, slightly up to 2.7% year-over-year.

This data release coincides with the eve of the Federal Reserve’s quiet period before the January 27-28 policy meeting, and market participants will attempt to find clues about the Fed’s future monetary policy from it.

01 Data Expectations

Tonight at 21:30 Beijing time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. This data is highly anticipated because it reflects the inflation level in the U.S., and inflation rate is one of the core factors guiding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

The market generally expects the overall CPI to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, maintaining at 2.7% year-over-year. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI is also expected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month, slightly rising to 2.7% year-over-year.

Although the Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast model gives a slightly lower forecast (core CPI up 0.22% MoM), mainstream Wall Street views believe that inflation has not significantly cooled down.

02 Federal Reserve Policy Direction

CME Group data shows that the market prices in a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January. This means that unless the CPI data tonight significantly exceeds expectations, a rate cut in January is unlikely.

The December employment report shows that, although hiring activity has slowed, 50,000 new jobs were added, and the unemployment rate fell back to 4.4%. These figures indicate that the labor market remains stable.

Richmond Fed President Barkin stated that the labor market is becoming more stable. Since there has been no sharp deterioration in the labor market and inflation remains close to 3% rather than the Fed’s 2% target, there is no reason for the Fed to rush into rate cuts.

Additionally, political factors may also influence the Fed to remain cautious. Facing pressure from the Trump administration potentially investigating Fed Chair Powell, the Fed might prefer to stay on the sidelines in January to avoid being seen as succumbing to political pressure.

03 Data Noise and Interference

It is particularly important to note that interpreting this CPI data requires a high level of expertise because the federal government shutdown in October and November last year disrupted data collection.

U.S. bank economists pointed out that due to the government shutdown, some October data could not be collected, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics used “carry-forward estimates” in November. This means that December’s data will compare prices to earlier periods (such as August), which could produce a technical upward bias.

November data may have been artificially suppressed due to early holiday promotional season data collection. Citigroup noted that as this factor diminishes and with rebounds in hotel, airfare, and clothing prices, core goods prices in December may show a “mechanical rebound.”

Some institutions, such as U.S. Bank and Evercore ISI, predict that the core CPI could rise by as much as 0.4% MoM, exceeding market consensus. Barclays even stated that until the data is released in March 2026, the market may not see a truly “clean” and undisturbed inflation report.

04 Inflation Outlook and Challenges

Looking ahead to 2026, the inflation outlook remains challenging. Many companies have indicated during earnings calls that they plan to pass on increased costs from tariffs to consumers starting early 2026.

Santander economists warned that this could trigger a new round of price increases. Meanwhile, housing inflation remains the largest component of the CPI.

If the data fails to decline as expected, it will continue to support high core inflation. For market participants, this means “the last mile of inflation is exceptionally difficult,” and the Fed may continue to be patient, with rate cut cycles possibly restarting only in mid-2026.

05 Potential Impact on Cryptocurrency Markets

On January 13, 2026, the prices of major cryptocurrencies on Gate are as follows:

For the cryptocurrency market, CPI data may influence through various channels. On one hand, higher-than-expected inflation data could reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance, strengthening the dollar index and putting pressure on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

On the other hand, if the data is below expectations, market expectations for rate cuts may increase, boosting risk assets.

Some trading platforms have already begun preparing for tonight’s data release, with one institution indicating they will adjust margin requirements during the release to manage potential market volatility.

This suggests that professionals expect significant market fluctuations during the CPI announcement.

Gold, as a traditional inflation hedge, also warrants attention. Spot gold is currently oscillating around $4,580 per ounce, slightly below the previous trading day’s all-time high of $4,630.08.

Gold’s performance may provide clues to market reactions to inflation data, helping interpret possible trends in the cryptocurrency market.

Future Outlook

At 21:30 tonight, when the CPI data is released, the calm in the cryptocurrency market will be broken. Whether the data exceeds or falls short of expectations, market volatility is expected.

For traders on Gate, tonight’s data is not only a test of the U.S. economy but also a challenge to individual trading strategies and risk management skills. The world is focused on this report, holding hopes and concerns about inflation.

Bitcoin’s price has been slightly volatile on the eve of the data release, with the market holding its breath. U.S. bank economists have even hinted that the core MoM CPI reading could reach 0.4%. If true, traders expecting the Fed to quickly turn to easing will face new choices.